Industrial Metals Update China’s aluminium stockpiling scheme just a short-term fix We don’t expect China’s recently-announced aluminium stockpiling scheme to provide prices with anything more than a temporary boost. Indeed, depending on how the scheme is implemented, it could... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of Iran sanctions not a game-changer for oil Confirmation that Western sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme are to be lifted might be expected to add to the downward pressure on oil prices, but there are three main reasons why the impact... 18th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Nickel’s travails are not over yet Although we are broadly positive on the outlook for industrial metals prices in 2016, it is hard to find the upbeat narrative for nickel. Demand is weak and stocks are high. That said , we do expect... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update How low can oil prices go? Brent’s renewed slide below $30 per barrel today has led to another wave of speculation about how much further oil prices could fall. For some time our view has been that the near-term risks are... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to extend recovery in 2016 Although expectations for the current 2015/16 Brazilian crop have been revised higher, smaller harvests elsewhere and a receding threat of Indian exports mean that we are maintaining our forecast that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks will not provide much of a cushion in 2016 There were few significant increases in stocks last year, despite reports of oversupply in most metals markets. Indeed, stocks of many metals could be drawn down swiftly if, as we expect, supply falls... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Price of cerium to recover, but won’t be a showstopper Cerium is the most abundant rare earth element (REE) and one of the most widely used. We expect the rise in cerium demand to outweigh increases in supply this year and next, putting some upward... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why US natural gas prices could rise further The end of unusually warm winter weather in the US helps to explain the surge in natural gas prices since December. But we expect contracting supply, the start of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Dec.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil inventories declined in December for the first time since the middle of last year as production fell sharply again. 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Three reasons to be positive on silver in 2016 Silver’s prospects will remain closely tied to those of gold in 2016. While Fed tightening and renewed dollar strength should continue to weigh on the prices of gold and silver over the next year or... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to stabilise in 2016 After falling below US$40 per tonne late last year, iron ore prices have edged higher more recently. Although we expect global demand to grow only moderately this year, we forecast that prices will be... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How will oil price developments affect copper? The recent slide in the oil price is weighing on the price of copper, in part because it is a reflection of negative investor sentiment towards commodities in general and China’s economy in particular... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More weakness for soybean prices likely in 2016 Record global harvests and stock levels, further depreciation in the currencies of key producers and subdued Chinese demand all look likely to drag the global price of soybeans lower this year. 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2015 laggards end year on a high December was a month of mixed fortunes for agricultural commodities in an otherwise pretty forgettable year. Indeed, the S&P GSCI agriculture index plunged 12% y/y in 2015 – the third consecutive... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A decade of two halves for oil prices We continue to expect the price of Brent, currently around $33 per barrel, to recover to $60 in 2017 and $70 by 2020. Nonetheless, with OPEC in disarray and China uncertainty persisting, we are... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Constrained supply may not be a panacea for alumina prices Malaysia has imposed a 3-month ban on bauxite mining and with further measures likely to follow, alumina supply could struggle in 2016. That said, demand will also be constrained by slower growth in... 7th January 2016 · 1 min read
