Energy Update Resilient production could keep oil prices lower for longer Even though we continue to think that oil prices will finish the year much higher than they started it, there is a growing risk that US shale producers will continue to defy forecasts of their demise. 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What, if anything, can copper price arbitrage activity tell us? The recent strength in China’s copper imports has been dismissed by many commentators as a response to an import arbitrage opportunity, rather than as a sign of a pick-up in demand. While the... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More misery for world wheat market Upward revisions by the USDA to its estimates for world end-year wheat and soybean stocks have only added to the gloomy outlook for prices, which we think are likely to ease further this year. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Global central banks continue to add gold to their reserves Global central banks increased their gold reserves in December, with China and Russia once again particularly active. We expect further official purchases to continue to be one of several factors... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Jan.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil inventories fell sharply m/m in January for the second consecutive month. 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Low stocks are offering some support to prices Exchange stocks of lead and tin are now at very low levels and total stocks of most metals have fallen since the start of the year. Of course, there may well be unreported stocks but, at face value... 9th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Tightening world rice market to give prices a lift With El Niño reducing rice production in key producing and exporting countries, a tighter world market should give the price of Thai rice a lift this year, despite headwinds from weakness in the baht... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s steel slowdown to keep iron ore prices under pressure Iron ore prices have now recovered from December’s lows, close to our end-year forecast. We expect demand from China’s steel sector to disappoint this year, so wouldn’t be surprised to see prices dip... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Tin to outperform other base metals this year Tin usage should pick up in 2016, led by a recovery in the global electronics sector. Given constrained supply, the price of tin could rally strongly. 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Be wary of currency-driven swings in commodity prices The dollar prices of many commodities have been boosted this week by declines in the value of the US currency. Any recovery may be good news for producers regardless of the underlying cause... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Focus on Brent hides greater weakness in OPEC’s prices The recent sharp falls and partial recovery in the price of Brent crude oil have grabbed the headlines. But focusing on Brent (or the traditional US benchmark WTI) alone doesn’t tell the whole story... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Diverging fortunes kick start agriculturals in 2016 The S&P GSCI Agriculture index has started the new year where it left the last: down, falling by close to 1%. However, the beginning of 2016 has seen a divergence in the performance of the prices of... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Why isn’t gold doing even better? The further gains in the price of gold today (to a high of $1,140 per ounce) are consistent with the relatively positive view we have had on the precious metal for some time. However, we are in no... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Taking stock of the fall in US winter wheat plantings The release of the USDA’s winter wheat seeding report, the agency’s first estimate of US winter wheat acreage, points to the possibility of a fall in production this year, not just for winter wheat... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Another headwind for wheat prices if Russia lowers export tax Russian ministers are set to meet on Wednesday to decide whether or not to remove the wheat export tax. We think the removal of the tax would put more downward pressure on wheat prices, although the... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India to remain a major importer of gold, for now While the response to India’s Gold Monetisation Scheme has been fairly muted so far, the Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme has been a success, having attracted the equivalent of almost four tonnes of gold... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
