Commodities Update Chinese data point to robust commodity demand First-quarter Chinese economic data suggest a cyclical rebound is underway, driven by state-sector spending. The data justify some of the recent strength in commodity prices and underpin our forecast... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Support for the price of cocoa should fade later this year The price of cocoa is likely to remain elevated in the near term due to continued supply concerns. But as output returns to normal, we think that the price will fall over the second half of the year. 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Mine supply to tighten across all precious metals Tightening mine supply is one of several factors behind our positive view on precious metals prices this year. Admittedly, for some metals like gold, mine production represents only a small fraction... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Deal or no deal in Doha? We think that the risk of the oil market being disappointed by any deal to freeze production in Doha on Sunday is high, given that oil prices have rallied by over 10% in the last week alone. Any deal... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stock movements more related to supply than demand With large divergences in stock movements between individual metals, it is unlikely that industrial demand has been the main driver. Instead, trends in inventories appear to have had a better... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Still some way off from sustainable aluminium price rally Global aluminium output fell again in February, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). But smelter restarts in a still over-supplied market could limit the scope for price increases... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glut of grains & soybeans heading into this year’s harvests The USDA’s latest demand and supply estimates continue to provide little evidence of any shortage of global corn, wheat and soybean supplies heading into the 2016/17 season. As such, we think prices... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A strong quarter for China’s industrial commodity imports China’s commodity import volumes rose in March, rounding off a strong quarter for import demand. However, local stocks have been building, suggesting that we will need to see a pick-up in activity if... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The tin rally is all about supply The price of tin has rallied by more than other metals prices since mid-January. We think this reflects the tight supply picture and low stocks. However, with growth in demand likely to remain subdued... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update PMs lose momentum but technical outlook remains positive Expectations that the Fed will hike rates sooner rather than later, coupled with the uncertainty still surrounding China’s economy (although both sentiment and the hard data have improved lately)... 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Mar.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show a further tightening of the market in March, despite a larger-than-expected rise in production. 11th April 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gasoline consumption to continue growing strongly Fuel consumption by US motorists is set to grow strongly again this year, despite a shaky start, as robust employment growth encourages more people to drive and demand for less fuel-efficient trucks... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold’s rally far from over Despite last week’s fall in the wake of strong US economic data out, we think that gold’s rally this year is far from being over. In particular, we expect building inflationary pressures in the US to... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber A pick up in US single-family home building should continue to support the price of US lumber this year even if the Canadian dollar gives back some ground against the greenback. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc demand looks promising The price of zinc has rallied strongly, and by more than other metals, reflecting the prospect of lower supply. But we think that the demand outlook is also positive, which will add further support to... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Agriculturals benefit from a weak dollar, but will it last? It has been a good month for agriculturals, with the S&P GSCI agriculture index rising by a little under 4% since the start of March. This reverses the downward trend in January and February... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
