Industrial Metals Update Chinese outages won’t boost LME aluminium price Smelter outages in China have led to a surge in the ShFE price of aluminium, and there is mounting speculation that the LME price will soon follow suit. We disagree. In contrast, our in-house model... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Three possible outcomes from the Aramco attack Given the uncertainty about the impact on supply of this weekend’s attack on Saudi Aramco, we are not changing our oil price forecasts yet. However, in this Update, we outline three possible scenarios... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices have further to fall Surging Chinese smelter output and faltering demand mean we think that zinc prices are set to drop by more than 15% by the end of this year and are unlikely to start recovering until the second half... 12th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update The gold price rally is over While we are revising up our once-bullish end-2019 forecasts for the prices of gold and silver, we think that the price rally this year has now run its course. Next year, we expect a recovery in bond... 11th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Grim outlook for Pacific coal prices The usual seasonal uplift in demand should support the price of Pacific coal until end-2019. However, we expect average prices to fall in the years ahead owing in large part to weaker demand prospects... 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Strength in China’s commodity imports won’t last long China’s commodity imports ticked up in August, in part due to strong infrastructure spending. But we expect them to weaken in the months ahead as temporary factors fade and construction activity tails... 9th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices still due a pick-me-up this year We continue to expect a modest rebound in coffee prices by end-2019 as currently low prices force many high-cost producers to exit the market altogether. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Back to 2014 for nickel Indonesia’s announcement of an imminent ban on exports of nickel ore has sent nickel prices to a five-year high. While trending higher initially, we expect prices to slump next year as supply is... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China fiscal stimulus not enough to boost prices China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in August. But both remain consistent with slower year-on-year growth in the remainder of 2019, which does not bode well for energy and industrial metals... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update The EU’s new energy policy will be no game-changer The policies of the next European Commission are likely to speed up the EU’s ongoing transition towards a greener energy future. However, its impact will probably not live up to expectations. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Jul.) Gold’s price rally saw Indian and Chinese imports continue to tumble in July. And, given that prices have risen further in August, gold imports could record multi-year lows in the second half of 2019. 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Trade escalation and G7 do not change our oil view While the US-China trade war has escalated, we had already expected the two countries’ dispute to deepen. Meanwhile, although a thawing of US-Iran relations could mean a return to the market of... 27th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lead price rally to go into reverse We think that a recovery in refined lead production, ailing demand, and elevated trade tensions should cause the price of lead to drop by almost 15% by end-2019. 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Is the services sector relevant to commodities? So far, the current global economic downturn has been driven by a marked decline in manufacturing activity, with obvious negative implications for commodities demand and prices. Less intuitively, we... 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Any UK petroleum reserve sell-off would be small beer A no deal Brexit later this year could mean that the UK government decides to substantially reduce its strategic reserves of petroleum products. But even after a reduction, the UK’s reserves should... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent-WTI price spread to remain low The dramatic narrowing of the spread between the prices of Brent and WTI oil in the last month, reflects a structural change in the market as logistical bottlenecks in the US are being resolved. As... 20th August 2019 · 2 mins read
