Commodities Update China’s PMIs tell contradictory stories There was a marked divergence between China’s October official and unofficial PMIs, which makes it difficult to gauge the underlying strength of the manufacturing sector. The rise in the Caixin PMI... 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More of the same for tin in 2020 Output cuts by Chinese smelters mean that the price of tin is unlikely to fall further in the coming quarters. But with growth in major consumers set to slow and tin particularly exposed to “List 4”... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Three possible scenarios involving Nordstream 2 Recent construction delays to Nordstream 2 mean that the Russia-EU gas pipeline is likely to miss its scheduled completion date of December 2019. While we suspect that surging supplies of LNG from the... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update China and India Gold Imports (Sep.) Gold imports by China and India fell once again in September. With the Chinese economy set to slow and Indian consumer preferences slowly drifting away from gold, Asian physical demand is likely to... 25th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global crude demand to trough in early 2020 Subdued global economic activity will weigh on oil demand next year. That said, we expect GDP growth to gradually pick up over the course of the year, and new International Maritime Organization rules... 16th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Trade war’s grip on metals to ease Despite the latest “mini-deal”, we think it is only a matter of time before trade tensions between the US and China escalate again. Either way, we think that the recovery in global economic growth... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to slow China’s commodity imports held up rather better than imports of other goods in September. However, we think import volumes will tail off in the months ahead amid faltering economic activity. 14th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Strong US ethanol output to boost corn prices While we broadly agree with the USDA’s latest corn supply forecasts, we are more positive about demand owing to recent changes to US ethanol policy. As a result, we expect corn prices to rise in the... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Low stocks sowing the seeds for price rebound On the whole, dwindling exchange stocks have had a muted impact on prices this year as global growth has slowed. But as inventories creep towards critical lows, this sets the scene for a sustained... 11th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update More to dwindling aluminium output than low prices At first glance, weak global aluminium output so far this year can be chalked up to the slump in prices. However, lower Chinese production growth has more to do with government-led crackdowns on... 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Turning a little more positive on oil prices in 2020 We expect that global oil supply will remain constrained in 2020. But we also forecast somewhat stronger growth in demand next year and a pick-up in risk appetite on the back of monetary easing. As a... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs provide cold comfort China’s official and unofficial PMIs rose in September, but we think this is unlikely to mark an economic turnaround not least because global demand looks set to weaken further. What’s more, signs of... 30th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Revising down our 2020 global oil supply forecast Lower production in Saudi Arabia and the lower-than-expected US output growth have led us to revise down our global oil supply growth estimates. We now expect the market surplus to be smaller than we... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Just how much nickel is sitting off-exchange? We estimate that 190,000 tonnes of refined nickel have flowed into unreported stocks since 2017. In other words, nickel stocks are much higher than official numbers indicate. This supports our view... 20th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
