Industrial Metals Update Vale cuts won’t prevent iron ore surplus Vale, the world’s second largest iron ore producer, has cut its iron ore output guidance for 2020 by nearly 30m tonnes. Although significant, we don’t think it will be enough to push the market into a... 20th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Not much road left for gold The gold price has benefitted lately from demand for “safe” assets and an apparent easing of deflationary fears. While we also doubt that an extended period of deflation is on the cards, runaway... 17th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update SPR buying to have limited impact on oil prices The collapse in oil prices in recent months has incentivised governments to increase their strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs). However, we don’t think that it will provide a boost to prices. 17th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Record output cut provides scant relief for now The unprecedented 9.7m bpd output cut announced by OPEC+ will merely reduce the oversupply of oil in the second quarter. But assuming full compliance, and an involuntary drop in North American... 14th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity trade not out of the woods yet After collapsing in January and February, China’s commodity exports stabilised last month. But with economic activity outside China now in the doldrums, this is unlikely to last. Meanwhile, China’s... 14th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Gold jewellery demand takes a pounding The latest trade data show sharp contractions in gold imports by major consumers China and India, suggesting that gold jewellery demand has taken a battering. Until signs emerge that the spread of... 9th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What to expect from the OPEC+ Meeting There is huge uncertainty about the outcome of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. For what it’s worth, we suspect that a large and unconditional output cut is unlikely. Even if we are wrong, we think a... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rice prices to tumble by 20% by end-2020 Export restrictions and stockpiling associated with the coronavirus may continue to support the price of Thai rice for the next few months. However, we expect that prices will fall back by the end of... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lower steel production to drag on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have been supported so far this year by China’s steel mills, which have continued to churn out metal. But with demand in China still subdued, and the virus-related disruption yet to... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Covid-19 casts a shadow on Henry Hub Natural gas prices have reached historic lows in recent weeks, with US natural gas (Henry Hub) last week plumbing depths not seen since 1995. The near-term outlook for natural gas is bleak, but prices... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Car sector woes spell bad news for PGMs As growing numbers of car companies idle production in response to COVID-19, we suspect that platinum group metals (PGM) demand will slow to a crawl. What’s more, job losses and income cuts due to... 6th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A bit of caution on China’s March PMIs Although China’s official and unofficial PMIs improved in March, the underlying picture is that the economy remains weak and is unlikely to offer much support to commodity prices. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update No let-up for oil anytime soon The latest leg-down in oil prices is not so surprising given that demand is collapsing at a time of rising supply. We think oil prices will only pick up if, as we expect, economic activity revives... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to fall to its lowest level since 2014 The coronavirus is disrupting global economic activity by much more than we had previously thought. As a result, we now expect global oil demand to fall by 6.5% in 2020 to just under 94m bpd. 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update For now, the worst-case scenario will be avoided We think there will be some permanent loss of commodity consumption in 2020 owing to virus-related disruption to activity, but we do see prices picking up later this year as economic growth starts to... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
