Energy Update Oil prices to rise irrespective of the risk premium Following the recent rise in US-Iran tensions, we estimate that the risk premium in the oil price briefly turned positive. After all, prices rose without there being any disruption to the physical... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Key commodity forecasts for 2020 We are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for commodities prices this year. While global economic growth will remain subdued, we think it will start to revive over the course of 2020. Therefore... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Base metals to dethrone precious this year We forecast that the prices of base metals will fare better than precious metals in 2020. This view hinges on a modest recovery in the global economy, which should give a lift to metals demand at a... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price to rise in 2020 despite surplus We forecast that the price of aluminium will rise this year even if, as we expect, the market flips from a deficit to a surplus. This is due to our expectation that investors will focus on a more... 3rd January 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update A few comments on the escalation in US-Iran tensions The oil price has jumped today on the back of the US assassination of a powerful Iranian military leader. Given the backdrop of improved investor sentiment in the oil market, prices could remain... 3rd January 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Good and bad in China’s PMI data China’s official and unofficial manufacturing PMIs remained strong at the end of 2019, which is positive news for commodities demand. However, we think that the ongoing slowdown in construction... 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US commercial crude stocks to taper off in 2020 US commercial crude stocks remained high in 2019 owing principally to strong domestic production and increased Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases. Looking ahead, we think that a further rise... 20th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Assessing the risks ESG factors pose to fossil fuels ESG rules won’t significantly deter investment in International Oil Companies (IOCs) or reduce fossil fuels production. Instead, output is likely to be guided by underlying oil prices, which we expect... 19th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand to fall even with CAFE changes If enacted, we estimate that the Trump Administration’s reported proposals for altering fuel efficiency standards in automobiles will mean that US gasoline consumption will be around 0.3m bpd higher... 18th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Focus to continue to shift away from US-China trade The muted market reaction to news of a provisional trade deal between the US and China lends weight to our view that the trade war’s grip on metals markets will ease over the coming year. While we are... 17th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Far-fetched promises on US agricultural goods We don’t think that China will import the $40bn of agricultural goods that it has reportedly pledged to buy from the US. As such, the impact on prices should be fairly minimal. 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The best days are behind iron ore After scaling a multi-year high in 2019, we forecast that iron ore prices will fall back over the coming years. This is premised on the continued return of supply from Brazil and Australia following... 13th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Trade deal no panacea for soybeans Regardless of the outcome of US-China trade talks, we think lower Chinese consumption will weigh on the price of soybeans next year. 11th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update The case for copper In our view, the outlook for copper prices over the next twelve months is positive. Supply is unlikely to recover nearly as quickly as many assume following major disruptions this year, and demand... 9th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s record oil imports not the whole story China’s commodity imports were relatively strong in November, perhaps reflecting some front-loading of regional spending on infrastructure. But our view that growth in China’s property sector is set... 9th December 2019 · 2 mins read
