Commodities Update Rice prices to tumble by 20% by end-2020 Export restrictions and stockpiling associated with the coronavirus may continue to support the price of Thai rice for the next few months. However, we expect that prices will fall back by the end of... 8th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Lower steel production to drag on iron ore prices Iron ore prices have been supported so far this year by China’s steel mills, which have continued to churn out metal. But with demand in China still subdued, and the virus-related disruption yet to... 8th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Covid-19 casts a shadow on Henry Hub Natural gas prices have reached historic lows in recent weeks, with US natural gas (Henry Hub) last week plumbing depths not seen since 1995. The near-term outlook for natural gas is bleak, but prices... 7th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Car sector woes spell bad news for PGMs As growing numbers of car companies idle production in response to COVID-19, we suspect that platinum group metals (PGM) demand will slow to a crawl. What’s more, job losses and income cuts due to... 6th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update A bit of caution on China’s March PMIs Although China’s official and unofficial PMIs improved in March, the underlying picture is that the economy remains weak and is unlikely to offer much support to commodity prices. 1st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update No let-up for oil anytime soon The latest leg-down in oil prices is not so surprising given that demand is collapsing at a time of rising supply. We think oil prices will only pick up if, as we expect, economic activity revives... 30th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Global oil demand to fall to its lowest level since 2014 The coronavirus is disrupting global economic activity by much more than we had previously thought. As a result, we now expect global oil demand to fall by 6.5% in 2020 to just under 94m bpd. 27th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update For now, the worst-case scenario will be avoided We think there will be some permanent loss of commodity consumption in 2020 owing to virus-related disruption to activity, but we do see prices picking up later this year as economic growth starts to... 26th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Why supply cuts don’t matter (yet) Several producers outside China have reduced operations in the past week, most notably in Latin America. But much like policy support, lower supply will do little to boost prices so long as measures... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update How the coronavirus impacts the agriculturals Stockpiling and labour shortages associated with the coronavirus have supported the prices of some agricultural commodities, particularly the grains, in recent weeks. However, once the virus-related... 25th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Deflationary fears a bad omen for gold Fire sales of gold have seemingly given way to safe-haven buying following yesterday’s unprecedented intervention by the Federal Reserve. Providing the Fed has injected sufficient liquidity to defend... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Agricultural prices won’t necessarily follow oil down While the price of Brent has dropped by nearly 60% since January, agricultural prices have so far held up comparatively well. Although we wouldn’t rule out agricultural prices falling further, the... 24th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Even after this week’s sell-off, the worst is yet to pass Over the last month, industrial metals prices had been holding up on hopes that China’s economy was edging closer to a post-virus recovery. But that all changed this week. With what were once downside... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update WTI to trade at a premium to Brent by 2021 Earlier this week, the virus-related economic disruption and the prospect of a surge in OPEC+ supply pushed the Brent-WTI price spread near to zero. Although it has since rebounded, we think the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update What higher OPEC+ supply means for the oil market OPEC+’s decision to abandon output constraint has been a factor behind the ongoing slump in oil prices. In our view, higher OPEC+ supply will weigh heavily on US shale output, prices and the risk... 19th March 2020 · 3 mins read
