Industrial Metals Update Stock hangover to dampen any recovery in prices Downward revisions to our demand forecasts mean that we now expect all base metal markets to be oversupplied in H1 2020. Lower output should, at best, prevent these surpluses from growing too large... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil price slump - this time it is different Oil prices have crashed by about 40% since end-January owing to the coronavirus-related demand shock and the collapse of OPEC+ output restraint. Following previous oil price crashes (2008 and 2015-16)... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Oil to continue to underperform other commodities Even before OPEC+ abruptly abandoned output cuts, oil had fared far worse than most other commodities. Some of this can be explained by oil’s greater use in the forms of economic activity most... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update It’s a war for market share, not price Against a backdrop of a coronavirus-related slump in demand, Saudi Arabia appears to have abandoned efforts to balance the oil market and is instead aiming to protect market share. Its pledge to... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Worst is yet to come for China’s commodity imports China’s commodity exports collapsed in the first two months of 2020. In contrast, commodity imports held up relatively well, but this probably reflects the greater logistical challenge faced by... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update China stimulus to push iron ore and steel higher The prospect of stronger demand stemming from stimulus in China, alongside recent supply disruptions, means that we now expect the deficit in the iron ore market to deepen this year, rather than... 4th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMI readings prompt hopes of stimulus China’s PMIs slumped in February, and a particularly worrying drop in the employment component suggests that a swift recovery is not on the cards. The data do, however, bolster our case that economic... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A Democrat could spark higher oil prices We think that, at least initially, the energy proposals of a Democratic President would support oil prices by curbing supply more than demand. 28th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Revising our forecasts as COVID-19 effects linger We had previously assumed that any coronavirus-related hit to metals demand in Q1 would be made up in subsequent quarters. But that now seems unlikely. As a result, we are lowering our year-end price... 27th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Henry Hub to outperform amid COVID-19 outbreak While the price of US natural gas (Henry Hub) has slumped on the back of coronavirus-related concerns, it has fared better than natural gas prices elsewhere. And given the low exposure of US LNG... 21st February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Higher truck loadings no panacea for platinum The price of platinum has risen nearly 5% since the start of February, buoyed by heightened uncertainty prompted by the outbreak of COVID-19. Later this year, and assuming the virus is successfully... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Silver to outperform gold in 2020 Heightened global uncertainty related to the outbreak of the coronavirus will support gold and silver’s investment appeal in the near term. Later this year, however, and assuming the disease is... 19th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Strong dollar not necessarily a major headwind Our forecast for the US dollar to remain strong in 2020 suggests downward pressure on commodities prices. However, we would argue that there are instances when commodity prices can still rise -... 18th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Perception the key to cobalt’s future There is potential for cobalt’s end-use in electric vehicle batteries to grow rapidly. However, concerns over the concentration of cobalt supply in the DRC have held back demand so far. Several auto... 18th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Don’t read too much into the collapse in the BDI Disruption to China’s commodity imports, owing to the outbreak of coronavirus, has sent the Baltic Dry Index into freefall. While freight rates should recover as and when China’s industrial activity... 17th February 2020 · 2 mins read
