Industrial Metals Update Still hard to be positive on lead in the long run We recently raised our price forecasts for base metals, including lead, as we now forecast a quicker economic rebound in China. And though we expect lead’s near-term price recovery to be driven by... 8th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Libya will not determine prices The end of the port blockade in Libya should mean that the country’s oil production is restored, but we think that supply will be slow to return not least because of damage to facilities and weak... 3rd July 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Rising China PMIs good news for commodities China’s June PMIs indicated a continued improvement in domestic industrial activity, which should be positive for commodities. However, fading external demand may prove to be a headwind for exports. 1st July 2020 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Chinese imports add to evidence of stronger demand China’s import data are another sign that demand is bouncing back in the world’s largest metal consumer. However, in some cases, a lack of supply is restricting shipments. This is likely to become... 30th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Sugar prices to tread water, amid ample supply Weak demand and a recovery in supply should push the sugar market into a surplus in 2020/21. As a result, we forecast that sugar prices will remain low over the coming year. 29th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Taking a look at our oil price forecasts In light of the recent revision to our China economic growth forecast and our expectation that the rebound in equities has further to run, we have revisited our oil price forecasts for the year ahead... 25th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Revisiting our forecasts … Recent revisions to our macroeconomic and markets forecasts are more positive for industrial metals than oil, and they support our slightly bearish outlook for the price of gold. 25th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US-Canada aluminium spat could worsen oversupply Reports that the US is considering rescinding Canada’s exemption to its 10% tariff on aluminium this week are unlikely to have much of an impact on the metal’s price. But such moves have the potential... 24th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US gasoline demand will take time to fully recover Gasoline demand in the US is recovering from the coronavirus-related slump. However, we think that it will take some time before consumption fully returns to its pre-virus level. 22nd June 2020 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update A minor star called tin We have turned more positive on the outlook for the price of tin. China’s demand is coming back strongly after a virus-related slump and, in the more medium-term, tin will benefit from its heavy use... 19th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Launching our coal switching price indicator Our new coal switching price indicator (CSPI) shows that, in the UK and the Netherlands, power generation using natural gas is much more cost-effective than coal. While this has been true for a while... 18th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Turning more positive on base metals We think that the recovery in equity prices has further to run, and now expect an even swifter economic rebound in China. Accordingly, we have raised our base metal price forecasts, which now show a... 18th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Renewables take the shine off European fossil fuels The virus-related economic disruption has already dealt a huge blow to fossil fuel usage in European power generation. What’s more, we suspect that the transition towards renewables may be accelerated... 16th June 2020 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update The surge in China’s PGM imports is misleading Soaring Chinese imports of platinum group metals (PGM) could be taken as a sign that end-use is racing back towards its pre-virus level. However, we think that higher imports merely reflect... 11th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update Fears of inflation unlikely to boost gold price This year’s rally in the gold price has come on the back of a coronavirus-led surge in safe-haven buying and a plunge in interest rate expectations. More recently, however, we suspect that the uptick... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Palm oil prices to drive higher Palm oil consumption will be hit hard by weak biofuel demand in 2020. However, we think that consumption will rebound strongly next season as higher biodiesel mandates incentivise more biofuel... 10th June 2020 · 3 mins read
