Commodities Update Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Strategic release of reserves is too little too late The announcement of the co-ordinated release of oil reserves by the US and other large oil consumers should mean higher supply (and downward pressure on prices) but it will come at a time when we... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron... 25th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A mild winter doesn’t change our price outlook We have left our near-term forecasts for energy prices (which are historically high) unchanged after reflecting on the latest weather forecasts for the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update What will the COP26 deal mean for commodities? Although the climate deal struck at COP26 appears to have fallen short on many counts, it does at least reaffirm our view that demand for traditional energy commodities will struggle in the long run. 16th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Copper supply set for further improvements Copper prices have soared since mid-2020 as demand raced ahead of supply. However, a strong supply response is now underway which, in tandem with cooling copper demand, will weigh on prices into 2022. 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Pick-up in China metal imports unlikely to last China’s imports of iron ore and copper rose in October compared to a month prior (in seasonally adjusted terms). But we doubt this is the start of a renewed upswing, not least as indicators of demand... 8th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Metals can’t ignore China slowdown for much longer Although the China PMI data were a mixed bag in October, the big picture is that they remain at odds with sky-high industrial metals prices. This adds to our view that prices have quite a long way to... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc supply shock as power prices rise The recent highs in the zinc price have been driven by fears around supply as sky-rocketing energy prices have undermined smelter profitability. We expect power prices to remain high in the coming... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium outlook brightest once auto sector rebounds The well-documented shortages of semiconductors have slammed the brakes on global vehicle production. As a result, the near-term prospects for platinum group metals (PGMs) demand in autocatalysts have... 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Coal is back in fashion, but not for long Coal prices are likely to remain high over the next six months as high demand weighs on already-low stocks. Prices should drop back next year, though, as demand growth moderates and supply improves. 19th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Pulling the plug; power rationing in China Power rationing in China has raised concerns about metal supply. But perhaps less obvious is that power rationing will also negatively affect demand if manufacturing activity is curtailed. On balance... 19th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Downturn in China’s commodity imports intensifying China’s imports of key commodities slumped almost across the board in September. The main exception was imports of coal, which soared in response to recent power shortages. We expect coal imports to... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
