Commodities Update Critical mineral stockpiles are a symptom of fracturing The stockpiling of critical minerals is an age-old response to a modern-day problem posed by China’s dominance over the supply of rare earths and other raw materials. That said, “Project Vault” will... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Oil market implications of US-India rapprochement Warming US-India relations, centred around an agreement for India to purchase less Russian oil, risks tightening the global oil market. However, we aren’t convinced that India will curtail imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Could SPR demand absorb Venezuelan oil imports? The potential for Venezuelan oil to be used, albeit indirectly, to refill the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the coming years gives us even more confidence in our view that a boost to US imports... 4th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Six key questions about the sell-off in precious metals We recently hosted a Drop-In on the sell-off in gold and other precious metals. This Update answers six key questions on topics such as the role of leverage in driving prices, the macroeconomic and... 3rd February 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The higher gold goes, the harder it could fall It’s notoriously hard to objectively value gold, and it’s plausible that the rapid ascent in gold prices could reflect a paradigm shift in demand. In fact, if gold prices were to follow the trajectory... 30th January 2026 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What if the US strikes Iran (again)? Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming in the wake of recent protests in the country, raise the chances of some form of regime change which could eventually pave the way for Iran’s possible... 29th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update How to make sense of the industrial metals rally The mayhem in precious metals markets has captured the majority of headlines, but several industrial metals prices have increased by a lot too. We are sceptical that near-term fundamentals justify... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Trump’s threats strain US-Europe energy relationship Strains in US-Europe relations under President Trump mean that European policymakers may perceive the region’s growing dependence on the US for energy to be a strategic vulnerability. This is not as... 22nd January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Coffee prices to keep falling back, but risks still brewing Coffee prices have fallen back from their record highs, and overall, we think that they will edge lower over the course of the year. That said, several risks could keep coffee prices elevated by... 20th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Iran instability a bigger headache than Venezuela The risks to the oil market from growing instability in Iran are much greater than in Venezuela. This is not only because Iran produces much more oil itself, but there are also a greater number of... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Scrap recycling won’t ease metals supply woes yet The recycling of scrap metals and minerals has been put forward as a potential solution to high metals prices and the west’s push towards self-sufficiency, while also offering a promising step towards... 13th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Protests in Iran: the economic and oil market implications It’s unclear how the protests that have spread across Iran will develop and how they will affect the ruling regime and the oil sector. But the prospect of disruption to Iranian energy output presents... 12th January 2026 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions on the “shadow fleet” The seizure of the Marinera oil tanker by the US has put the “shadow fleet” under the spotlight, with some estimates suggesting it now accounts for ~20% of global tanker capacity. While a concerted... 8th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on Venezuela’s oil sector In light of the acute attention on Venezuela’s oil sector, this Update answers five key questions on the potential for oil production in the country. 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Copper: the euphoria will disappoint Although supply concerns are still present, the most recent surge in copper prices seems to be some spillover from exuberance in other corners of commodity markets. Looking ahead, we suspect that... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update What to make of recent precious metal price surges? The explosive rises in silver, platinum, and palladium prices in recent weeks suggest that retail investor-driven exuberance in the gold market has found another outlet. However, if our view that FOMO... 5th January 2026 · 5 mins read
