Energy Update Making sense of sky-high coal prices in Asia Thermal coal prices in Asia rose to record highs in early September and have only fallen back slightly since. This was despite no major supply disruptions and in contrast to falls in other energy... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Electronics sector to compound silver’s recent woes With the global electronics sector struggling and the more general global economic backdrop deteriorating, we think the silver price will remain under pressure over the rest of this year. 27th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Brent price premium to persist Europe’s scramble to replace Russian oil has left the price of Brent crude trading at a substantial premium to WTI for most of this year. But we expect this premium to narrow in 2023-24 as low US... 9th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Europe should avoid widespread gas rationing We don’t think Europe will be forced to widely ration natural gas this winter because the sky-high price should attract sufficient LNG from abroad to replace reduced imports from Russia, whilst also... 8th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China’s trade data show persistently weak oil demand Commodity import volumes generally held up well in August, with the exception of crude oil imports. As long as China continues with pandemic-related lockdowns, oil demand is likely to remain weak. 7th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Demand outlook deteriorating The latest manufacturing PMIs out of China and emerging Asia point to a worsening demand outlook for commodities, but especially industrial metals. This adds weight to our view that industrial metals... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update A revived Iran nuclear deal would tie OPEC’s hands A revived Iran nuclear deal would quickly bring an additional 1mn bpd of crude oil production online, which would directly weigh on global oil prices. But the bigger impact would be to make it less... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Could cheap Norwegian gas fix Europe’s energy crisis? One left-field option for alleviating Europe’s gas crisis that has been doing the rounds is the potential for asking Norway to discount the price of its gas exports. This Update looks at eight key... 24th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Palladium price to rise through 2023-24 We forecast palladium demand to pick up slightly over the next two years, while supply growth is set to remain muted, keeping the market in a deficit throughout. Continued drawdowns of stocks over... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Update Sky-high gas prices here to stay, with risks to the upside We have revised up our forecasts of the European natural gas price due to the scale of Russia’s supply cuts and the likelihood that these are permanent. Prices should ease back in 2023 as Europe... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Gloomy outlook for use of agriculturals in industry Deteriorating global economic growth over the coming quarters will weigh on industrial demand for cotton, natural rubber and lumber. That said, high oil prices will offer some support to cotton and... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar’s LNG boost still a few years away With Russia tightening its squeeze on supply of gas to Europe, governments are turning their attention to other major gas exporters such as Qatar to try to fill the gap. But Qatar’s gas sector is... 9th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update China’s copper imports are the only bright spot Commodity import volumes remained lacklustre in July, consistent with subdued activity in heavy industry and construction. We think import growth should tick up in the coming months in response to... 8th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update We’re less upbeat about OPEC oil supply Concerns about the demand outlook have dragged the Brent crude oil price towards $90 per barrel this week. But, the supply-side concerns which pushed the price over $120 per barrel not too long ago... 5th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Gold’s lustre to return in 2023 Having fallen sharply in Q2, we think that the gold price is now close to a cyclical trough. What’s more, the price should revive a little in 2023 as markets factor in the prospect of US monetary... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update The boost from China reopening is now behind us China’s PMIs fell in July, weighed down by soft export orders. However, we think that China’s economy troughed in H1 2022, and that a modest pick-up in H2 should give some support to commodities... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
