Energy Update Russia products ban to boost prices, at least initially The EU’s imminent ban on Russia’s refined oil may see EU prices rise, but major disruption is unlikely. Even so, Russia will find it more difficult to find new buyers for its refined oil than it did... 3rd February 2023 · 2 mins read
Precious Metals Update South Africa’s platinum group metal supply to struggle The global supply of platinum group metals is likely to be increasingly strained by electricity shortages in South Africa. This poor supply outlook is a key reason why we forecast the prices of these... 3rd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China metals demand unlikely to pick up soon The January survey data out of China point to a revival in oil demand, but relatively flat metals demand. This is consistent with our view that the recent rally in metals prices is a little premature... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Nov.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed sharply late last year. But attention is now geared towards the rebound in China’s metal demand. We think there is a good chance that the rebound disappoints... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Futures Market Monitor (Jan. 2023) This is the first edition of a new monthly publication in which we will outline the latest moves in commodity futures markets and assess how they relate to our own view on fundamentals. Specifically... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Surge in copper prices on shaky footing While China’s reopening has improved the prospects for copper demand, the price has, in our view, surged by more than can be justified by developments there alone. We expect the copper price to drop... 24th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Global economic fracturing in 2023 – new year, new risks The theme of global economic fracturing, which was the focus of our Spotlight Series of research last September, is at the centre of economic discussion in 2023, including at Davos. We held an online... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Lula unlikely to herald new era for biofuels The election of left-wing candidate Lula for a third term as Brazil’s president is unlikely to accelerate Petrobras’ sluggish shift towards large scale biofuel production. We expect proposed oil... 18th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Energy Update French nuclear won’t reduce EU gas demand Output from France’s beleaguered nuclear industry jumped last month, raising hopes that a recovery is underway. However, we think any increase in France’s nuclear output this year is likely to be... 17th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update The fallout from protests in Peru Widespread unrest across several regions in Peru could make the central bank’s job of reducing above-target inflation even more difficult while also threating to hamper activity in some of the country... 16th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Higher price forecasts due to China reopening China’s rapid reopening and the likelihood of policy stimulus there has improved the macro-economic backdrop for commodities in 2023. But with developed economies in recession, and a somewhat stronger... 16th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update China commodity imports set to rebound this year Commodity imports generally rose in December, but fell in 2022 as a whole. In a possible sign of optimism around reopening, soybean imports skyrocketed. China’s unexpectedly swift switch to living... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Upgrade to 2023 China forecast and its implications Disruption from China’s reopening is fading faster than we had expected and we have revised up our forecast for growth there from 2.0% to 5.5%. This means that global GDP growth will be stronger than... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Energy Update A lower gas price forecast, but prices to stay high European natural gas prices have halved over the past month as usage stayed low and LNG imports hit record highs. Barring dramatically colder weather, EU gas storage looks set to be in a more... 6th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China’s commodity demand to remain weak in Q1 The December survey data out of China were uniformly downbeat. The plunge in the official services PMI points to a fall in oil demand, but we suspect that the hit to industrial activity (and metals... 3rd January 2023 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Metals Demand Monitor (Oct.) Demand growth for industrial metals slowed in October and almost certainly weakened further last month. We expect demand growth to remain sluggish, or even contract, in the first half of 2023 as the... 23rd December 2022 · 2 mins read
