Commodities Update Any support from China to prove temporary The stabilisation in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for August, along with (surely premature) hopes of additional monetary stimulus in the US, is providing some temporary support for... 24th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan regime change to undermine oil prices further The market response today has been muted, but we still think that regime change in Libya could ultimately knock $10 from the price of a barrel of Brent. 23rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold has further to rise despite likely Venezuelan sales In isolation, the news that the Venezuelan government is nationalising its gold industry and planning to repatriate its overseas gold reserves might be seen as negative for the price of the metal... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What next for oil prices? The recent bounce in oil prices, at least prior to today’s drops, had been interpreted by many as strong evidence of underlying tightness in the global market for crude. In contrast, we continue to... 19th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold price set to exceed platinum by record amount Last week, the price of gold exceeded that of platinum, albeit only temporarily, for the first time since December 2008. In our view, this rare occurrence will be repeated and the spread will widen to... 17th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports remain weak China’s commodity imports rose m/m in July, particularly those of copper and soybeans. Overall, this was more a reflection of weak imports in June and to a lesser extent the entire first half of the... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities not out of the woods In line with our forecasts, the prices of many commodities have fallen by more than 10% in recent days, with the exception of gold. We continue to believe that the prices of industrial metals and oil... 11th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is gold’s sudden drop yesterday a sign of things to come? Amid widespread market turmoil yesterday, the factors which have been driving the price of gold higher caused it to hit an all-time high of just over $1,680 per ounce. Later on in the day, though... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Equity markets signal trouble ahead for commodities The prices of many commodities have held up comparatively well in the past few weeks, despite the rout in financial markets. Nonetheless, the sharp decline in prices of commodity-related equities... 6th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US debt deal is not the end of the road for gold’s bull run Despite the deal to extend the US debt limit, the price of gold hit record highs late yesterday. We think this makes sense. Although the deal may cut investors’ aversion to risk, it signals the onset... 4th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strike action at mines distracts from demand woes Concern over ongoing and potential strike action at mines has helped send the price of a number of commodities higher in the past month, especially industrial metals. In our view, the attention placed... 3rd August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are all commodities safe havens? The prices of gold and silver are obvious beneficiaries of the increasing worries about US government debt. But other commodities have also held up rather better than might have been expected... 28th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA pledge should help cap oil prices The International Energy Agency (IEA) decided not to announce a further tapping of oil from strategic reserves today after the 30-day review of the release of 60m barrels last month. However, the... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI signals Chinese demand still losing momentum The ongoing deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for July should offset at least some of the reassurance provided to commodity markets by the seemingly robust official data on... 22nd July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Libyan end-game to knock at least $10 off oil prices We continue to expect the price of a barrel of Brent, currently $119, to fall back to $85 by the end of the year. This forecast is based largely on persistent sluggishness in demand, a stronger dollar... 20th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
