Commodities Update No hard landing for China but demand outlook still poor The pick-up in China’s unofficial manufacturing PMI has eased concerns that the economy is about to crash land, but a period of relatively weak growth still lies ahead. What’s more, the latest euro... 25th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dollar gains to add to downward pressures on prices The prospect of further strength in the US dollar is a clear and present danger to commodity prices of all types. But if the main driver is worries about sovereign debt, gold should still outperform. 22nd October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall further despite index rebasing (and Iran) We have been asked one or both of the same two oil-related questions by several clients this week. In summary, what are the implications of the addition of Brent to the basket for the Dow-Jones UBS... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s Imports of Commodities (Sep.) China’s commodity imports rose in the third quarter, particularly those of iron ore and copper. In our view, this was more a reflection of bargain-hunting rather than a strong upswing in underlying... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big a risk is a Chinese property crash? The boom in China’s construction sector has played an important role in driving demand for industrial metals, notably copper but also steel. Although there are two good reasons why the sector should... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global demand woes to send base metals even lower Despite the price of many industrial metals having plunged by a quarter in recent months, we believe that crumbling demand growth will lead to prices falling further. However, in the case of aluminium... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing downturn shows price weakness is real The deterioration in global manufacturing confirmed in the September PMI supports our view that underlying demand for commodities is weakening and that their prices have not simply been caught up in... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update 2012 copper price forecast lowered to $6,000 Copper prices have been a major casualty of the recent sell-off in commodities and have already dipped below our long-held forecast of $7,500 per tonne for 2012. Prices may well bounce in the coming... 28th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold still deserves “safe haven” status The recent sharp falls in the dollar price of gold have led some to question its status as a refuge from problems elsewhere, especially now that the US currency is strengthening across the board... 24th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Industrial metal prices tumble and are set to fall further A triple whammy of weak PMIs in China and the euro-zone plus a downbeat assessment from the Federal Reserve about the long-term economic outlook has sparked sharp falls in commodity prices in the last... 23rd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does Thailand’s rice scheme mean for global prices? Thailand, the world’s largest rice exporter, is set to introduce a generous price floor for local rice farmers, fuelling speculation that global rice prices are about to surge. However, we expect any... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Euro-zone crisis leaves more upside for gold Gold’s spectacular rise over the past decade has seen its price climb from $256 per ounce in 2001 to more than $1,900 at its recent peak. After such a long bull market and some large daily falls in... 21st September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Operation Twist” mean for commodities? Any further easing from the US Fed will probably be limited to lengthening the maturity of its existing holdings of Treasury securities (“Operation Twist”) rather than a third round of outright... 15th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent to fall to $85 per barrel in 2012 The factors that we had thought would undermine oil prices over the course of the year have been gradually falling into place, namely slower growth both in advanced and emerging economies, a reduction... 9th September 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Beware the LME stocks data Stocks held on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have traditionally been seen as a barometer of the overall balance between supply and demand in the base metal markets. As such, the recent increase in... 26th August 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity prices to drop back on QE3 disappointment Not for the first time, commodity prices have been propped up by hopes of additional monetary stimulus from the Fed. However, we doubt these hopes will be realised anytime soon. What’s more, even if... 25th August 2011 · 1 min read
