Commodities Update Interpreting China’s steel output China’s steel output may well be higher than the official figures suggest, but the outlook for prices depends on what happens to demand. 19th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How high could gold prices go? With the price of gold approaching $1,600 per ounce and hitting new highs this week in other major currencies too, many are asking how high prices could still go. A variety of methods suggests a... 16th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s imports of commodities collapse China's imports of industrial commodities dropped sharply in the second quarter, indeed by more than they did during the global recession. Imports may well rebound in the second half of the year, but... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US demand likely to remain sluggish Today's weak employment report should go some way towards dashing the renewed optimism about the US economy which, combined with reduced fears of an imminent Greek default, had propped up commodity... 9th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How much do seasonal factors drive gold? The time of the year is fast approaching when the price of gold is traditionally assumed to be boosted by a seasonal pick-up in demand. We are sceptical that calendar effects can ever be that... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China’s destocking alone explain lower metals prices? The decline in China’s imports of industrial metals may partly reflect a drawdown of inventories, but underlying demand also appears to have weakened and shows no sign of rebounding. 30th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil prices to fall further (and not just because of the IEA) Oil prices have probably overreacted to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA’s) decision to release emergency stockpiles, just as they overreacted (in the opposite direction) to OPEC’s decision to... 25th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Chinese demand continues to cool The continued deceleration in China’s economy signalled by the flash PMI for June supports our view that commodity prices – industrial metals in particular – have further to fall. There is plenty of... 24th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coffee prices perked up by buoyant demand Similar to many other agricultural commodities, supply problems have caused the price of coffee to more than double since the start of 2010. However, there is a clear uptrend in coffee consumption too... 22nd June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum and palladium prices have further to fall We expect slowing industrial demand, especially from the automotive sector, to cause the price of platinum to slide from around $1,800 per ounce to a low of $1,500 in 2012. Palladium may be better... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's Imports of Commodities (May) China’s imports of many key commodities edged up in May compared to April, but they remain below their average level in the first quarter. Imports of copper in particularly have fallen sharply this... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gold can reach $2,000 even without QE3 Despite receding fears of inflation we believe the price of gold will continue to climb, chiefly spurred by worries about the health of the global economy and sovereign debt. We think gold remains on... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update OPEC Quotas (Jun.) OPEC’s decision to maintain its current output quotas, rather than raise them, will disappoint many after the encouraging signals from Gulf delegates in the last 24 hours. However, oil production is... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The downside risks to agricultural commodity prices The UN’s assessment that agricultural commodity prices are likely to remain “high and volatile” for the rest of this year and into 2012 is perfectly reasonable. However, even if food prices do stay... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will commodity prices get a further boost from QE3? The dark cloud over the US economy has had a small silver lining for commodity prices in the form of renewed expectations of yet another bout of quantitative easing from the Fed and a lower dollar... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Gulf fiscal pressures need not mean higher oil prices Major Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia now need higher prices to balance their government’s books, but these break-even rates are unlikely to act as a significant constraint on how far or... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
