Commodities Update Wheat prices have further to fall Wheat prices fell by around 7% last week as concerns about crop damage due to a late winter freeze in the US were replaced by expectations of a bumper harvest. Prices have recovered a little this week... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is iron ore outperforming steel? The price of iron ore has risen by 6% since the start of the year, chiefly due to lower production, while the price of steel fell by 7%. We don’t expect this divergence to continue as higher iron ore... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs paint worrying picture The first estimates of the Chinese and euro-zone manufacturing PMIs for April remained below 50 and are consistent with further sharp falls in the prices of industrial metals. Most worryingly, the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's next for soybean prices? The price of the benchmark yellow no. 1 soybean has risen by about 20% since the beginning of 2012, to 1400 US cents per bushel, from 1180. Factors that contributed to this rise are drought related... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Weather won't keep US natural gas prices down for long The bulk of the decline in the price of US natural gas, from $6 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) early in 2010 to around $3 at the start of 2012, can be explained by the surge in supply. But... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to China’s commodity demand still skewed downwards North Korea’s rocket program appears to be at greater risk of an imminent “hard landing” than China’s economy. But beyond that, today’s Q1 GDP data tell us little about the prospects for China’s... 13th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update IEA’s oil market outlook still too bullish The IEA’s latest assessment that the “tide of remorseless tightening in the oil market” appears to have turned is surely right. Indeed, this has already been reflected in the levelling out of crude... 12th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply shortages already priced into corn and soybean Global soybean production estimates published by the United States Department for Agriculture (USDA) were revised down today, but by no more than already anticipated by the market. However... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's commodity imports show signs of weakening Many analysts have focused on the still-high levels of China’s commodity imports in March and the rapid year-on-year growth rate. However, the seasonally adjusted data show imports ended the quarter... 10th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s next for sugar? The price of sugar has strengthened recently due to concerns over harvests in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. The consensus is for prices to continue rising from the current level of 23.4 cents... 4th April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodities shouldn't bank on more support from the Fed The positive reaction in commodity markets to Fed Chairman Bernanke's seemingly dovish speech on Monday has already begun to fade, which makes sense to us. What's more, any additional bond buying is... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Global outlook still points to lower commodity prices A quick review of recent developments in the world economy supports our relatively downbeat forecasts for the prices of the commodities, notably oil and industrial metals, most sensitive to global... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How tight is China’s corn market? Recent industry reports suggest that China’s corn production in 2011/12 could be as much as 14% lower than current official estimates. As a result, China’s imports are likely to be considerably higher... 21st March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How big is the Iran premium in oil prices? Estimates of the amount that the tensions between the West and Iran have added to global oil prices range from $5 to $25 per barrel (pb). Our best guess is towards the bottom of this range – perhaps... 16th March 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's strong commodity imports not set to last China’s imports of commodities in February were strong, especially in volume terms, but this may have been distorted upwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays and by... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
