Commodities Update Monetary stimulus not enough to rescue commodity prices The additional monetary stimulus from the world’s major central banks undoubtedly contributed to the recovery in asset prices, including commodities as well as equities, after the global recession... 29th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean prices to fall back as China’s demand disappoints Soybean prices have strengthened recently on hopes of continued robust demand from China, the world’s major importer, reflected in news of increased purchases from the US. However, we expect growth in... 28th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A tale of two exchanges Copper stocks on the two main metal exchanges have been moving almost continuously in opposite directions since the start of the year. As a result, LME stocks are at a 2-year low, but inventories on... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How far would an IEA stock release lower oil prices? There are several grounds for thinking that the International Energy Agency (IEA) would be quicker to release stocks in response to a further surge in oil prices if due to tensions with Iran than it... 23rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Improvements in PMIs mask underlying fragility The first estimates of the manufacturing PMIs for February improved in both China and the euro-zone, but remain at levels consistent with further falls in the prices of industrial metals. The detail... 22nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Corn to trade at a premium to wheat We expect both corn and wheat prices to decline over the next two years due to a combination of ample supply, increasing competition between key grains exporting regions and a disappointing global... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Iran’s latest position bearish (sic) for oil prices The apparent escalation in tensions between Iran and the EU over the weekend has been widely interpreted as bullish for oil prices. However, Iran’s position looks increasingly weak and the regime may... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices to hold up better than copper Over the past decade increases in the price of copper have far outpaced those of aluminium. The flipside is that, during the downturn we expect over the next two years, we forecast aluminium prices to... 16th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports show renewed weakness China’s imports of commodities in January were surely distorted downwards by the relatively early timing of the Lunar New Year holidays. Nonetheless, there are plenty of signs of underlying weakness... 10th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strength in Brent likely to be temporary At least half a dozen explanations have been advanced for the recent jump in the price of Brent crude oil, whether in absolute terms or relative to the traditional US benchmark, West Texas... 9th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Collapse in shipping costs may be significant after all The wider significance of the 25-year low recorded in the Baltic Dry Index – a composite of global freight costs for dry bulk commodities such as iron ore, coal and grains – has generally been... 7th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample global supply to keep wheat prices soft The price of the benchmark no. 2 soft red winter has already fallen by around 20 US cents to just over 660 cents per bushel after Russia’s decision on Friday not to impose any tariff on its grain... 6th February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver: a star performer but will this last? Silver has been the best performing of the major commodities so far in 2012, rising by around 22% in dollar terms and even outpacing the 12% increase for gold. However, while we expect renewed... 3rd February 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A cautionary note on copper January’s recovery in the price of copper was driven by four positives, none of which we expect to be sustained. Accordingly, despite hopes elsewhere of a sustained surge past $10,000 per tonne, from... 2nd February 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Was the Fed statement really so positive for commodities? The prices of most commodities, like those other riskier assets, have been rising after Wednesday’s Fed statement was widely interpreted as a “pledge” to keep US interest rates on hold until the end... 27th January 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cotton rally set to unravel Optimism about China’s demand and an improvement in general risk appetite among investors have led to a 10% increase in the benchmark Memphis cotton price, to around 90 cents per lb, from its 2011 low... 26th January 2012 · 1 min read
