Commodities Update China's commodity imports rebound China’s imports of commodities were surprisingly strong in May. The figures were probably flattered by the temporary closures of customs offices in the previous month and by some commodity-specific... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to fall 20% as weather concerns ease Wheat prices have been very volatile recently due to uncertainty over the crops in key producing countries such as the US and Russia. Unfavourable weather may indeed reduce the global harvest compared... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Hints of policy support don’t change the bigger picture Commodity prices have regained some ground this week on hopes of additional policy stimulus. However, actions speak louder than words. With the exception of widely anticipated rate cuts in China, the... 7th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update More price falls to come, led by oil Other analysts are reportedly “shell-shocked” by the sharp declines in the prices of oil and other commodities in May, but we had already been braced for the fall-out from an escalation of the crisis... 6th June 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can the US monetary data explain the price of gold? The relationship between the dollar price of gold and the size of the US monetary base is not as robust as often assumed. Prior to the global financial crisis there was barely any relationship at all... 30th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Falling PMIs show industrial demand ailing The flash manufacturing PMIs for both China and the euro-zone fell in May. Despite the prospect of some near-term support from policy easing in China, industrial commodity prices are likely to fall... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Easing Iran tensions to undermine oil prices further Concerns about the crisis in the euro-zone, fears of a “hard landing” in China and weaker data in the US have displaced tensions with Iran as the main driver of global oil prices. Nonetheless, a... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would a Greek euro exit mean for commodities? Our central forecasts for industrial commodity prices already reflect some of the potential fall-out from a Greek euro exit. In particular, the economic and financial uncertainty is one of several... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Where is the safe haven demand for gold? The price of gold has dropped sharply in recent days and is barely changed in 2012 to date. The fact that gold has struggled despite the worsening crisis in Europe has added to doubts about its status... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s commodity imports drop back Chinese commodity imports have been undermined by weak industrial demand and high stockpiles. We expect these factors to continue to put downward pressure on commodity prices. 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brent on course to end year below $100 Crude oil prices have remained weak after last week’s sharp falls, largely due to concerns over the US economy and the escalating problems in Europe. We expect these pressures to ebb and flow over the... 9th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices have further to fall Wheat prices fell by around 7% last week as concerns about crop damage due to a late winter freeze in the US were replaced by expectations of a bumper harvest. Prices have recovered a little this week... 8th May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why is iron ore outperforming steel? The price of iron ore has risen by 6% since the start of the year, chiefly due to lower production, while the price of steel fell by 7%. We don’t expect this divergence to continue as higher iron ore... 4th May 2012 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three illustrative scenarios for the price of gold The lack of a reliable income stream makes gold notoriously hard to value objectively, whilst the key drivers constantly seem to be changing. The current price is around $1,645 per ounce, having been... 3rd May 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China and euro-zone PMIs paint worrying picture The first estimates of the Chinese and euro-zone manufacturing PMIs for April remained below 50 and are consistent with further sharp falls in the prices of industrial metals. Most worryingly, the... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What's next for soybean prices? The price of the benchmark yellow no. 1 soybean has risen by about 20% since the beginning of 2012, to 1400 US cents per bushel, from 1180. Factors that contributed to this rise are drought related... 20th April 2012 · 1 min read
