Commodities Update New Simandou supply will sink iron ore prices Against the backdrop of weakening demand, the ramp-up in iron ore supply from the Simandou mine in Guinea is a key driver of our below-consensus view that iron ore prices will fall sharply over the... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Beef and edible oils the exceptions to falling food prices While most agriculturals prices – and food price inflation – will decline alongside crude oil prices next year, structural supply headwinds will keep the prices of edible oils and beef elevated. 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Thinking through a potential end to the war in Ukraine Media reports suggest that the US and Russia are drafting a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, seemingly on terms favourable to Russia. Were this to materialise, a lack of sufficient security... 20th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update 5 key questions about AI and demand for commodities This Update examines five key questions about AI-related demand for commodities, and the economic consequences of potential future disruptions to their supply. 19th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Unpacking the key unknowns that will drive peak oil A growing divergence in views on the trajectory of oil demand over the next 25 years – and whether demand will even reach a peak during this period – partly reflects the reduction in political support... 17th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Delays to US LNG won’t prevent gas prices from falling A combination of delays to LNG export capacity in the US and greater demand for natural gas from AI data centres will, all else equal, constrain the supply of LNG over the coming years. However... 12th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Cocoa price falls to offer sweet relief by Halloween 2026 The record-breaking rally that erupted in cocoa almost two years ago appears to be over and prices have fallen back significantly. Speculative trading activity and European cocoa demand are also at... 29th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update A primer on AI and electricity demand While data centres will remain a small share of global electricity consumption, the uneven spread of their power demands means their influence on power markets will be felt much more acutely in... 28th October 2025 · 4 mins read
India Economics Update India isn’t ready to become a global rare earths player India has the world’s third-largest proven reserves of rare earths, but it accounts for a tiny share of global production due to various technical and regulatory difficulties. If these hurdles are... 28th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Blowing the full-time whistle on the gold rally The latest leg of the gold rally looks like a market bubble that is in its final stages. So unlike some analysts, we are revising our forecasts lower and now expect prices to fall to $3,500 per ounce... 27th October 2025 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil up the ante On the face of it, the announcement of sanctions by the US on Rosneft and Lukoil is a major escalation in the targeting of Russia’s energy sector and could be a big enough shock to flip the global oil... 23rd October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Commodities & the tariff shock six months on Six months on from the unveiling of President Trump’s tariff agenda, the direct effects on commodity markets have been contained to higher US price premiums for steel and aluminium. That said... 22nd October 2025 · 4 mins read
Commodities Update Faster EU Russian energy phase out won’t boost prices This report is an updated version of an Update originally sent on 20th October 2025. Given that the EU has already largely discontinued imports of Russian oil and pipeline natural gas, the... 20th October 2025 (Updated 3rd December 2025) · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fool's gold? The price of gold has arguably risen so far above ‘fair’ value that it might come crashing down soon. 20th October 2025 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Update EU’s CBAM takes carbon pricing global The looming introduction of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) at the start of 2026 will finally extend the “polluter pays” principle to emissions imported into the bloc. This report –... 15th October 2025 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update Key questions (and answers) on rare earth elements With China’s rare earth export controls back in the spotlight, this Update answers seven key questions on the in-vogue elements and the economic consequences of disruption to their supply. 13th October 2025 · 5 mins read
