Energy Update

The timelines and trajectories of peak fossil fuel demand

The green transition and the accompanying rollout of renewables means that global coal demand could peak this year, followed by oil around 2030. Meanwhile, the importance of natural gas as a...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Update

Attention turns towards the return of La Niña

A return of La Niña could provide some respite for those commodity producers who have been hit hardest by El Niño. But it could also pose problems for others – not least in South America – and so...

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Energy Update

OPEC+ to turn on the taps, oil prices to fall in 2025

At long last, OPEC+ outlined a plan on Sunday for when and how members would unwind the large production curbs currently in place. We assume that this plan is followed through and that output...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Reading the OPEC+ tea leaves: rollover is on the cards

The decision by OPEC+ to move its crunch meeting from in-person on Saturday in Vienna to online on Sunday, historically a sign of an uneventful meeting, suggests that members will rollover production...

31st May 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Iran’s succession plans unlikely to fix economic woes

The death of Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi yesterday creates greater uncertainty over the succession planning for the next Supreme Leader. But, taking a step back, the balance of political power...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

US shale boom approaching a peak

Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry...

20th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Copper price upsurge will not be sustained

The surge in copper prices today, to a record high of over $5/lb in trading on the New York commodities exchange (COMEX), is the latest twist in the eye-popping market rally and leaves prices looking...

15th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy

We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of...

15th May 2024 · 6 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs

The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a...

14th May 2024 · 2 mins read

Commodities Update

Your latest commodities questions answered

We held an online Drop-In session last week to discuss geopolitical risk and the commodities price outlook. This Update answers several of the questions that we received.

10th May 2024 · 7 mins read

Industrial Metals Update

Zinc on the brink of a price fall

The surplus in the zinc market will shrink a little this year, as recovering raw material supply and a pick-up in refined output is offset by a boost to demand from a cyclical recovery in China. That...

9th May 2024 · 3 mins read

Commodities Update

China PMIs point to solid but unremarkable demand

China’s PMI surveys for April suggest the economy continues to grow at a faster pace than a few months ago which is providing support for commodity demand. Today’s Politburo statement signalled that...

30th April 2024 · 2 mins read

Energy Update

Mexico’s oil export cuts won’t damage global supply

Longstanding turmoil in Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, alongside newly announced export cuts, raise questions about the outlook for Mexico’s oil output. But it will not be a large enough...

30th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Metals prices: a genuine breakout or overoptimism?

In a mixed week for commodity prices, copper topped $10,000 per tonne for the first time since April 2022. This is the latest in what has been a rip-roaring start to the year for non-ferrous...

26th April 2024 · 4 mins read

Energy Update

Japan’s LNG demand to sink; Korea’s to fall more slowly

A resurgent nuclear power sector in Japan and a continuously growing one in South Korea coupled with an expansion in renewable power capacities will ensure both countries’ LNG demand will fall...

23rd April 2024 · 3 mins read