Commodities Update Soybean prices now more likely to fall than rise Wet conditions and lower-than-expected stocks in the US have pushed the price of soybeans to its highest level this year. But with plentiful global supplies, we don’t think the recent rally will last... 1st July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Competition from soy will push palm oil prices lower The price of palm oil has struggled to find asense of direction this year, falling below MYR2,100 per tonne in April, before recovering to MYR2,300 by early June. In this Agricultural Commodities... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update The only way is up for nickel prices The price of nickel has fallen by nearly 10% from last Friday, despite early signs of a pick-up in globalnickel demand. Given that we expect supply to become more constrained in the second half of... 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China still controls its REE exports, despite “looser” regime Despite “loosening” its rare earths (REE) export regime, China will continue to control global supply. As such, our view remains that REE prices are unlikely to fall much further. 30th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slightly sweeter times ahead for the price of sugar A mountain of sugar has been the catalyst for prices falling to a six-and-a-half year low. However, higher ethanol output in Brazil and a small world sugar deficit in 2015/16 should help to lift the... 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How will China’s rebalancing affect consumption patterns? In the short to medium term, rising incomes will remain the key driver of changing dietary patterns in China, particularly for meat demand. However, a shift towards consumption-led growth and... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Lifting of sanctions on Iran is a major downside risk to oil prices The likely easing of sanctions on Iran is one of several downside risks to global oil prices over the remainder of the year. Admittedly, it may not be until 2016 before Iran can meet its side of any... 24th June 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for energy markets? China’s efforts to rebalance its economy away from investment, manufacturing and exports towards a more consumer-led growth model are likely to have major implications for all types of energy... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A closer look at China’s import data China’s import data continue to suggest that, in general, demand for agricultural commodities remains weak. The main exception is sugar, where imports surged on low world prices. 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) Early business survey evidence for June supports our relatively positive view on the outlook for China’s commodity demand, especially metals. The latest euro-zone data are encouraging too, although we... 23rd June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update India’s gold demand to remain strong despite poor monsoon According to the World Gold Council (WGC), rural households in India allocate 7-8% of their annual savings to gold. Good harvests raise income levels and translate into greater gold demand. However... 22nd June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would “Grexit” mean for commodities? A Greek default has looked increasingly likely for some time and, in isolation, may have few implications for global commodity markets. However, the risks of contagion to the rest of the euro-zone... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weather conditions take charge of crop prices Agricultural commodity prices have had mixed fortunes since mid-May, with roughly half seeing rises and half seeing falls. While concerns about supply constraints have helped support cocoa and robusta... 19th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Why commodity investors shouldn’t fear the Fed The US central bank is edging towards a first interest rate hike, most likely in September. Thereafter, we expect rates to rise faster than the markets (and Fed officials themselves) generally... 18th June 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Commodity markets come off the boil again After a strong performance between mid-April and mid-May, all four commodity sub-indices fell over the past month. The S&P GSCI industrial metals index fell particularly sharply, largely due to... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for PGMs? The potential impact on precious metals demand of China’s transition to a consumption-led growth model could be substantial. We believe that palladium and platinum in particular will benefit due to... 17th June 2015 · 1 min read
