Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making the case for tin Tin demand is expected to pick up after a weak start to this year, but the main case for higher tin prices lies in a tightening supply profile. We expect ore exports from Myanmar to slip in the second... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Limited scope for further falls in prices Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have slumped as the correction in equity prices in China damaged confidence in global commodity markets while investors shrugged off the threat that... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of China’s cotton stocks to push prices lower The price of cotton has been one of the better performing among agricultural commodities this year. However, we think prices are likely to fall as China seeks to sell its huge cotton reserves. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran and the West make a deal, but stumbling blocks remain Today’s announcement of the deal reached between Iran and the West should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, the deal could still be disrupted by... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for iron ore? After plummeting last week, iron ore prices have stabilised at around $50 per tonne. However, there appears to be little to support prices given that we expect a contraction in China’s steel output... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US oil exports muscle in on an already crowded market Even though we do not expect the restrictions on US crude oil exports to be lifted anytime soon, there is still plenty of scope for exports to grow rapidly. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower opening corn & soybean stocks mask the bigger picture Although market prices reacted positively to the USDA’s latest WASDE report, there is no evidence to suggest that world grain and soybean supplies are facing a significant tightening. We think the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports surge in June China’s commodity import volumes were generally strong in June, although copper imports fell to a four-month low. We think government stimulus and infrastructure spending will boost demand for... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Jun.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that although crudepalm oil production declined in June, it was still 12% higher y/y. Inventories alsoremain significantly higher on a... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What next for silver? The price of silver has been a notable casualty of the sell-off in commodity markets in the last few days. This is in line with the traditional pattern of under-performance by silver when the prices... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices to recover, despite headwinds We remain broadly positive on the outlook for most industrial metals prices in 2015-16 as we expect demand to pick up in the second half of this year and believe that some metals in particular may... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply worries see prices spike and investors turn bullish The past month has seen a huge reversal of investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities. Surging grain and oilseed prices, on account of poor growing conditions in the US and Europe in... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's equity gyrations not such a big deal for commodities The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks tread water in June Exchange stocks of some base metals are at very low levels and could be a factor boosting prices later in the year. However, stocks of copper and aluminium, in particular, remain high and will act as... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
