Energy Update US oil exports muscle in on an already crowded market Even though we do not expect the restrictions on US crude oil exports to be lifted anytime soon, there is still plenty of scope for exports to grow rapidly. 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Lower opening corn & soybean stocks mask the bigger picture Although market prices reacted positively to the USDA’s latest WASDE report, there is no evidence to suggest that world grain and soybean supplies are facing a significant tightening. We think the... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s oil imports surge in June China’s commodity import volumes were generally strong in June, although copper imports fell to a four-month low. We think government stimulus and infrastructure spending will boost demand for... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Jun.) Data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that although crudepalm oil production declined in June, it was still 12% higher y/y. Inventories alsoremain significantly higher on a... 10th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol demand in Brazil to support sugar price Rising ethanol output in Brazil to meet domestic demand should help lift the price of sugar this year. We forecast the benchmark price at end-year at 13.5 US cents per pound, up from 12.3 cents today. 9th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What next for silver? The price of silver has been a notable casualty of the sell-off in commodity markets in the last few days. This is in line with the traditional pattern of under-performance by silver when the prices... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Metals prices to recover, despite headwinds We remain broadly positive on the outlook for most industrial metals prices in 2015-16 as we expect demand to pick up in the second half of this year and believe that some metals in particular may... 8th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Supply worries see prices spike and investors turn bullish The past month has seen a huge reversal of investor sentiment towards agricultural commodities. Surging grain and oilseed prices, on account of poor growing conditions in the US and Europe in... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China's equity gyrations not such a big deal for commodities The slump in equity prices in China has damaged confidence in global commodity markets, including oil and especially industrial metals. However, we think that the current negativity is overdone. While... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Stocks tread water in June Exchange stocks of some base metals are at very low levels and could be a factor boosting prices later in the year. However, stocks of copper and aluminium, in particular, remain high and will act as... 7th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update New (lower) forecasts for precious metals prices The prices of precious metals have not responded as we had anticipated to the growing risks of a Greek exit (“Grexit”) from the euro. We are therefore revising our end-year forecasts for gold, silver... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update All signs point south for oil prices The combination of a Greek “no” vote, signs of rising US oil production, positive signals of a nuclear deal between Iran and the West as well as slowing Chinese demand for imported oil means that we... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Greek "no" leads us to revise our forecasts for oil and gold Commodity markets have largely responded in the ways we had anticipated to the growing risks of “Grexit”. Oil prices in particular have fallen, undermined also by the prospects of a deal with Iran and... 6th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Rising demand and tighter supply to lift arabica prices High Brazilian exports have kept the coffee market well supplied and prices down. But we think lower global stocks and continued demand growth will support prices over the second half of the year. 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Europe well positioned to weather Ukraine gas disruptions We do not expect the latest dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas to disrupt the supply to Western Europe. But even if it did, the EU is in a good position to cope as stocks are... 3rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What does China’s rebalancing mean for gold? Gold faces important challenges as China rebalances its economy. Higher consumer spending should be positive for jewellery demand. A corresponding reduction in savings might reduce demand for gold as... 2nd July 2015 · 1 min read
