Commodities Update China, Japan & Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) Today’s weak PMI reading from China will reinforce the negative sentiment towards commodities, notably industrial commodities, but demand should still pick up on further policy easing. Meanwhile... 24th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st-16th Jul.) Wet weather in the first half of July meant that the amount of sugar cane harvested in Brazil fell 37% compared to the second half of June. As a result, both sugar and ethanol production dropped... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How low could gold go? In an earlier Precious Metals Update, “Quantifying the downside – and upside – for gold” (13 th March), we suggested that the gold price could fall as low as $850 per ounce in a worst case scenario... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What are global auto sales telling us about PGM demand? Despite slowing auto sales in China, we believe autocatalyst demand for platinum and palladium will increase by at least 3% in 2015, helping to underpin our positive view on the prices of both metals... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A stronger BDI need not signal higher commodity prices The sharp rebound in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) since the end of May has been seen by some as a harbinger of a more positive outlook for demand and prices of bulk commodities. However, we would argue... 23rd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investor sentiment towards commodities tanks Broad-based weakness saw industrial commodity price indices slip between mid-June and mid-July. The S&P GSCI agriculture index bucked the trend, although it too has eased back recently. What’s more... 22nd July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s corn and wheat imports surge in June China’s imports of agricultural commodities were generally strong in June, suggesting a pick up in underlying demand. However, opportunistic buying due to lower prices is likely to have been a factor... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China's refined nickel imports finally take off Prices may be plumbing new lows, but the detailed Chinese trade data are pointing to some positive trends in metal demand. In particular, the surge in nickel imports in June suggests that the domestic... 21st July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold to recover when higher US interest rates priced in We think that sentiment towards gold is now excessively negative. Nonetheless, given the difficulty in valuing an asset that pays no income and the importance of safe-haven demand, which is also... 20th July 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s gold accumulation has further to go Today’s confirmation that China has added to its official holdings of gold since 2009 is not necessarily bullish for prices. This is buying that has already taken place and the increase was (arguably)... 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Subdued demand will undermine cocoa prices The latest European and North American cocoa grinding data continue to point to subdued demand. Combined with a rebound in Ghanaian production, we think that the price of cocoa will fall this year. 17th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Making the case for tin Tin demand is expected to pick up after a weak start to this year, but the main case for higher tin prices lies in a tightening supply profile. We expect ore exports from Myanmar to slip in the second... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Limited scope for further falls in prices Over the past month, precious metal (PM) prices have slumped as the correction in equity prices in China damaged confidence in global commodity markets while investors shrugged off the threat that... 16th July 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sales of China’s cotton stocks to push prices lower The price of cotton has been one of the better performing among agricultural commodities this year. However, we think prices are likely to fall as China seeks to sell its huge cotton reserves. 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Iran and the West make a deal, but stumbling blocks remain Today’s announcement of the deal reached between Iran and the West should, eventually, allow Iranian oil exports to return to their previous levels. However, the deal could still be disrupted by... 14th July 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What next for iron ore? After plummeting last week, iron ore prices have stabilised at around $50 per tonne. However, there appears to be little to support prices given that we expect a contraction in China’s steel output... 13th July 2015 · 1 min read
