Commodities Update Rising Brazilian soybean production to push prices lower Although the USDA has revised down its forecasts for this year’s US corn, wheat and soybean harvests, we think ample global supplies will push prices down over the remainder of the year. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What role has the Syrian crisis played in lifting oil prices? The rebound in oil prices can largely be explained by an improvement in sentiment toward demand and mounting evidence of cuts in non-OPEC supply. Admittedly, the escalation of Russia’s military... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Malaysia Monthly Palm Oil Data (Sep.) September data released earlier today by Malaysia’s Palm Oil Board show that palm oil stocks rose to the highest monthly level on record. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Digging deeper into China’s coal demand We think that the market is still underestimating the weakness in China’s demand for coal and expect prices to continue to fall over the next few years as this becomes more apparent. 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The turn is nigh (if it hasn’t already happened) We do not expect the future paths to be smooth, but the rallies in commodity prices over the past week are consistent with the relatively positive views we have been expressing for some time. We are... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Investors start warming towards agriculturals again Cuts to production forecasts and other supply concerns have resulted in a sharp rise in the prices of a number of agricultural commodities since the beginning of September. In tandem, futures curves... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (16th Sep. – 1st Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that sugarcane harvesting in Brazil’s main South-Central region was back on track in the second half of September after... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Consensus is moving towards a copper deficit next year Planned and unplanned cuts to copper supply now make it increasingly likely that the market will be in deficit next year (and possibly this year), even with very subdued demand projections. This... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update What’s holding back gold? The price of gold has rallied, helped by the Fed’s reluctance to raise US interest rates, but still looks likely to end the year some way below January’s peak of around $1,300 per ounce. However, gold... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update TPP impact on agricultural markets likely to be limited TPP is the largest trade deal to be negotiated for more than 20 years. But given the relatively small share of world imports of key agricultural commodities by the 12 signatories and many existing... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Can tin prices continue to outperform? Tin prices have risen recently, defying the generally negative sentiment towards metals. As we move into 2016, we expect stronger growth in demand to lead to further price gains. 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sugar price rally likely to falter soon The US dollar price of sugar has recently surged as a result of a hike in fuel prices in Brazil. But with the price of sugar already much higher in terms of Brazilian real, and the possibility of... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update US trade in silver bullion boosted by strong coin demand US imports and exports of silver bullion and doré picked up in July, as government mints across the world struggled to keep up with unexpectedly strong demand for silver coins. In contrast, trade of... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Cuts in investment to help oil prices recover Lower investment in oil exploration and production will lead to a sharp drop in growth in non-OPEC output over the next few years, especially from unconventional sources such as deep water and tar... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US stocks don’t indicate any market shortage The latest US grain stocks estimates continue to signal that grain and oilseed supplies are plentiful. With weak currencies boosting the competitiveness of key exporters, we think dollar prices are... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glencore’s woes may have silver lining for commodities We would not be surprised if the well-publicised problems at Glencore actually mark a trough for the prices of many industrial commodities. This (perhaps rather counter-intuitive) conclusion is based... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
