China Economics Weekly PBOC is right to be relaxed about inflation Producer prices are rising rapidly as the extraordinary surge in global demand for consumer durables during the pandemic has led to bottlenecks in supply. But the People’s Bank is right to not be too... 14th May 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Tourism recovering, Phase One deal remains a dud Domestic tourists made a record number of trips over the recent Labour Day holiday. But in a sign that consumers are still holding back, daily tourism spending was still a fifth below pre-pandemic... 7th May 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Population pressures, supply constraints biting There is mounting evidence that supply constraints are feeding price pressures across manufacturing in China. Producer price inflation is about to jump to multi-year highs. Meanwhile, the statistics... 30th April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly New growth forecasts, service sector divergence We’ve nudged down our China growth forecast for 2021 in response to incoming data suggesting that momentum slowed more than we’d expected in the early part of this year. Our expectations for the rest... 23rd April 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Investors reassess state support Investors had previously shrugged off governance problems at Huarong, China’s largest distressed debt manager. The assumption had always been that the firm’s ties to the Ministry of Finance would... 16th April 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC window guidance, census data gems The People’s Bank (PBOC) has struck a dovish tone in its recent public statements, parroting calls by China’s leadership for lower real lending rates. But media reports suggest that the PBOC is taking... 9th April 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Consumer boycotts will accelerate decoupling Consumer boycotts of foreign firms in China are becoming more frequent and harder for the firms involved to deflect. Government restriction on multinationals’ foreign activities are also becoming more... 1st April 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Throwing in the towel on PBOC rate hikes Policy normalisation has run a long way already in China. Interbank rates have returned to near pre-pandemic levels. Credit growth has slowed. And a PBOC survey published yesterday signals that last... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Acrimony in Alaska, Made in China, fiscal tightening, The acrimonious meeting in Alaska underlines that a new US administration has not led to a reset of US-China relations. China’s leadership has long appeared set on a course for industrial decoupling... 19th March 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Plan signals property construction is set to slow The Five-Year Plan includes numerous targets and projections for how China’s economy will develop over the next few years. Among them are a couple that highlight growing structural constraints on... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Officials strike hawkish tone ahead of the NPC The National People’s Congress has just kicked off in Beijing. We will publish an Update with our initial analysis once the key details from the meeting have been made public. Recent comments by... 5th March 2021 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly What to expect at the NPC The National People’s Congress – the stage on which China's government sets out its economic plans – starts on Friday. We expect the budget to confirm the withdrawal of post-COVID fiscal support. It’s... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Policymaker silence, festival spending, the Ox & GDP Years of the Ox aren't typically bullish for China's economy. 2021 will be different, but recent inaction by both the Finance Ministry and People’s Bank points to a withdrawal of policy support that... 19th February 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Vaccine rollout will accelerate China appears once again to have successfully crushed the recent COVID-19 flare-up. Its vaccination campaign is looking less impressive and the original target for inoculations by Lunar New Year... 11th February 2021 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Ant capitulates, officials chip away at hukou barriers The government is taking some further steps to boost labour market mobility by making it easier for migrants to settle and access healthcare in many of China’s cities. That will ease one constraint on... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal taps turned off, Spring Festival travel subdued A rush to meet annual spending targets pushed China’s quarterly budget deficit to the second largest on record at the end of 2020. But the government has now turned off the taps. Local government bond... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
