China Economics Update What difference would a wider RMB trading band make? The next major reform in China’s exchange rate policy is likely to be a widening of the renminbi’s daily trading band with the dollar. In this month’s China Watch, we consider the implications of such... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China's move up the value chain a threat to Asian economies? As China develops, its manufacturing firms are moving into higher-value sectors. While this is a boon for low-wage Asian economies that represent a good alternative for low-end producers... 29th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update No need to worry about low-end exports losing market share China’s share of the world’s low-end exports has started to fall. This reflects a shift by Chinese producers into sectors where margins are higher rather than a failure to compete. China’s export... 28th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q1 2012 Business confidence in China has perked up this quarter, although demand has continued to slow. Meanwhile, a smaller share of people think property prices are excessive now than a few months ago but... 20th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Key challenges await Hong Kong’s new chief executive Regardless of which candidate wins the election on Sunday, the new chief executive will face a series of challenges as Hong Kong grapples with how best to deal with slowing exports, rising inequality... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What do Wen’s comments mean for property and the renminbi? Today’s comments from Premier Wen Jiabao at the close of the National People’s Congress have sparked interest in the outlook for China’s property and exchange rate policies and in the prospects for... 14th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Huge trade deficit, but questions too over domestic demand Exports to the US were a bright spot, but the general picture from China’s latest trade data is that global demand is still subdued. What’s more, imports have grown only slightly faster than exports... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stop worrying about the new growth target The implications of China lowering its growth target have, in our view, been widely misunderstood. The lower target will have no direct impact on policy. Slower growth in China’s economy would also... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation falls, but activity disappoints at start of year Today’s spending and output data were disappointing, suggesting the apparent turnaround at the end of last year has already run out of steam. There are clouds on the horizon too: property sales are... 9th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Feb.) We think consumer price inflation dropped significantly in February. We expect further small falls to the middle of the year, which will provide room for more policy easing. Oil prices at their... 7th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Key takeaways from the National People’s Congress The opening day of the National People’s Congress has thrown up a new growth target – exactly as expected – and confirmation that the government is holding the line on property market controls. 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Questions over credibility of China’s budget China’s budget planners have a history of wildly underestimating revenue growth, usually making actual net spending by the government far less supportive to the economy than originally planned. The... 5th March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What to watch for at the National People’s Congress The annual meeting of China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, starts on Monday. In this China Watch, we highlight the key issues. We also preview forthcoming data releases. We expect them... 2nd March 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How rapidly will China relax capital controls? China is slowly relaxing its capital controls but unfettered cross-border flows won’t be allowed until the currency floats and the financial sector has been overhauled. This could take a decade, but... 24th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Gradual policy easing to continue The weekend cut to reserve requirements was so long in coming that some investors had begun to question whether the People’s Bank was really committed to policy loosening at all. We believe it is... 20th February 2012 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Current account surplus falling but trade frictions to remain Data released on the eve of Vice President Xi Jinping's visit to the US show that China's current account surplus has continued to tumble. But plenty of potential sources of trade friction remain. 14th February 2012 · 1 min read
