China Economics Update How badly will China’s exporters be hit? Rapid wage growth, renminbi appreciation and inflation have not put much of a dent in China’s export competitiveness. We expect export growth to halve next year, but for Chinese exporters nonetheless... 18th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong facing a difficult year ahead Hong Kong escaped falling into recession in the third quarter, but the economy remains very weak. Given our forecast that global growth will slow further next year, and the risks of a local property... 11th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation tumbles Inflation fell sharply in October and further falls are likely in coming months. With downside risks to economic growth high and rising, today’s data bolster our confidence that China’s policy is set... 9th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably fell sharply in October and we expect a further steep fall in November. Credit policy is likely to be loosened in coming weeks. 7th November 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China on cusp of policy shift The coming few weeks are likely to mark a turning point in Chinese policy. October’s data should provide the clearest evidence yet that inflation is fading. Signs of stress are building in the real... 3rd November 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Chinese whispers alone won't save the euro Despite yet another round of speculation suggesting that China is about to ride to the rescue of the euro-zone, Europe will still have to solve its own problems. Meaningful Chinese support would... 29th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stable in Q3, but problems looming China’s Q3 data confirmed that growth was stable last quarter, but with both exports and real estate construction likely to slow, a more difficult period lies ahead. 19th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What should we make of the fall in China’s FX reserves? The fall in the value of China’s foreign exchange reserves last month raises some potentially far-reaching questions about the nature of China’s currency intervention and whether it has been... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation in decline Inflation finally seems to be moving in the right direction, opening space for policy to be eased if necessary to support the economy. Credit quotas could be loosened before the end of the year. 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Sep.) We think consumer price inflation probably rebounded a touch last month, but still expect it to drop below 5% by the end of the year. As it does, policymakers are likely to start loosening controls on... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi on the move again The renminbi’s rapid gains in recent days should have quashed speculation that the People’s Bank has reintroduced a dollar peg. China is likely to come under significant external pressure to keep the... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Is China facing a property market collapse? Property developers in China are facing a grim year ahead, with a likely slump in project starts set to drag on broader economic growth. The sector should nonetheless be able to avoid a collapse... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The view from the ground – Q3 2011 Households in China are expecting consumer prices to continue rising rapidly. But with businesses reporting weakening demand, falling capacity utilisation and rising inventories, that could soon... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Import data point to recovery in domestic demand Neither rising wages nor growing fears about the global outlook seem to be causing any difficulties for China’s exporters. Meanwhile, the latest import data are consistent with a strong pick-up in... 13th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Slower inflation and continued weakness in consumption Inflation fell in August and is likely to end the year much lower than today. This should open the door for policymakers to relax controls on lending, particularly if export demand slows 10th September 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation probably declined in August. It may rebound in September but is likely to have dropped to 5% or lower by the end of the year. This would remove a significant barrier to further... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
