China Economics Update What is the government’s bottom line for growth? Confusion over where the government’s “bottom line” for GDP growth lies suggests that officials may be less fixated on meeting the annual growth target than many outside observers think. Their main... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Export slump points to faltering demand China’s exporters in June had their worst single month since the depths of the financial crisis. Efforts to crack down on illicit cross-border capital flows may have played a large part, but the... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jun.) Consumer price inflation probably picked up in June. It is likely to continue rising in coming months but not by enough to cause alarm, given the state of the economy and the likelihood that credit... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China embraces reform – and slower growth China’s policymakers finally seem willing to tackle the economy’s structural imbalances. This reduces the threat of an abrupt slowdown in GDP growth further down the line, but it also means that China... 4th July 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Financial stocks lead slump Equity prices in Shanghai have fallen sharply since early June. The primary cause is the cash crunch in China’s interbank market rather than increasing concerns about Fed’s policy. Meanwhile, the... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Reckless policymaking hints at appetite for reform There are some positives to be drawn from China’s cash crunch. The episode is arguably the strongest sign yet that the leadership is willing to suffer short-term economic pain if necessary to achieve... 24th June 2013 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update The view from the ground - Q2 2013 Businesses remain relatively confident about the economy overall but, when it comes to their own situation, they have recently turned much more downbeat. Meanwhile, Chinese households are as reluctant... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Cash crunch signals policymakers’ credit concerns Short-lived cash crunches in China are not unusual. But the fact that the People’s Bank has allowed the current crunch to persist so long when economic growth remains weak signals the depth of its... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Rebound remains elusive The key message from China’s May data is that there is no clear evidence of an economic rebound getting underway. Most of the commentary has focused on the impact on exports of more stringent controls... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Consumer price inflation was probably little changed in May, but it is likely to pick up over the rest of the year as pork prices look to have bottomed out. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Signs of new momentum in economic policy reform Six months after China's leadership transition there are encouraging signs that policymakers are embracing the need for significant economic policy reform. In this China Watch we review the progress... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Property stocks lead rebound again China’s equity prices have recovered somewhat this month. Meanwhile, the renminbi has been allowed to appreciate at a faster pace. 27th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi surge undermines case for capital account opening The recent surge in the renminbi may have been an attempt by policymakers to lay the groundwork for a loosening of capital controls. But it has ended up demonstrating why such a move will be difficult... 24th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Still subdued in April Today’s data releases suggest that domestic demand remains weak despite a strong expansion in credit in recent months. 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Growth in Hong Kong to remain lacklustre GDP figures for Q1 released today show growth in Hong Kong remained lacklustre in y/y terms, while in q/q terms the pace of expansion slowed sharply. Looking ahead, with global demand set to... 10th May 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Calendar effects inflate trade data The acceleration in both export and import growth last month was simply the result of there being more working days in April this year than last. It does not point to strengthening demand either at... 8th May 2013 · 1 min read
