China Economics Update No “Master Plan” so far from Third Plenum President Xi raised expectations ahead of the Third Plenum with talk of a “Master Plan” for reform. We should learn more in the days ahead but, based on what has been revealed so far, the decisions... 12th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update State sector pulls back With output growth stable and inflation contained, October’s data signalled two key developments: a pull back in investment by the state sector, particularly in infrastructure, and a slowdown in... 11th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Positive signs on foreign demand Strong imports of industrial commodities last month suggest that China’s investment led rebound was holding up relatively well early in Q4. However, with policymakers again focussing on risks from... 8th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a problem is local government debt? China’s local governments have taken on unhealthy amounts of debt over the last few years but, unlike many, we do not think this should rank among policymakers’ primary concerns. Instead, we would... 7th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Nov 13.) After rising through the summer, consumer price inflation looks set to be stable over the rest of the year. With policymakers signalling renewed efforts to rein in credit growth, inflation should... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s equities fall, market rates rise China's stock market fell in late October as money-market rates surged. A rerun of June's cash crunch is not on the cards, but there is increasing evidence that the policy stance is shifting back... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update As good as it gets? Today’s GDP data were squarely in line with expectations. The more interesting development was the slowdown in infrastructure investment in September amid broader signs that the momentum of the... 18th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update People’s Bank accelerates its foreign exchange purchases The People’s Bank (PBC) has been purchasing foreign exchange at a frantic rate in recent weeks,underlining again how reluctant policymakers are to leave the renminbi in the hands of market forces... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Welcome slowdown in credit, but inflation rising The slew of September data released in the last few days reveal a welcome slowdown in broad credit growth and a sharp pick-up in inflation. The latter may look alarming, but on closer inspection it... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Oct.) Consumer price inflation probably rebounded last month, thanks to a rise in vegetable price inflation. In general though, inflation in most areas is stable, with no sign that the economy’s summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Can Shanghai become a global financial centre? The underwhelming launch of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone (FTZ) has led many to reassess the likelihood of the zone becoming a test bed for far-reaching policy reform any time soon. If anything, the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s market rally fades China’s financial markets rallied in early September, but momentum has since faded. Meanwhile, the renminbi has remained stable. 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Foundations weak for a property turnaround Against the backdrop of a strengthening economy, confidence in the prospects of China’s crucial real estate sector has also been heating up recently. But digging a little deeper in this China Watch we... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Service sector reform edges further forward Recently-implemented tax reforms should remove some of the disadvantages that have slowed the growth of China’s service sector and thereby deepened its economic imbalances. 25th September 2013 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s unwelcome rebound Evidence of an economic revival over the summer has settled the nerves of the many China watchers who had been worrying about an imminent crash. Those earlier fears were probably exaggerated, but the... 23rd September 2013 · 1 min read
