Capital Daily Equity returns likely to be limited regardless of geopolitical events The limited response in US equities to rising tensions in the Middle East seems to reflect a view that the US economy will be largely unaffected by the latest escalation. But even if US stocks remain... 6th January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the US dollar to continue to recover Both US Treasuries and the dollar have started the year on the front foot as the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran has prompted renewed safe-haven demand. While we think that Treasury... 3rd January 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond-market sell-off unlikely to gather more momentum The yields of most 10-year developed market government bonds have fallen back a bit today. But the bigger picture is that they have risen over the past month, continuing an upward trend that started... 2nd January 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Other central banks unlikely to follow Riksbank’s example One reason why we expect the yields of 10-year government bonds to stay low in general for the foreseeable future is that we think that interest rates will remain very depressed. Indeed, in some cases... 19th December 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The best things may come in small packages this festive season Big has been best for investors in US equities in 2019. Nonetheless, we suspect that things will be different next year. 18th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fed likely to keep a lid on US money market rates As the year-end approaches, the potential for funding market stress has again become a hot topic. While the Fed’s measures to provide liquidity have so far kept a lid on US funding rates, the... 17th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More upside for UK equities than sterling or Gilt yields next year Sterling and Gilt yields initially jumped following the UK general election results, but they have since fallen back a bit. In fact, we doubt that they will rise again substantially as long as there... 13th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to fall further in the E-Z, but rise in the US This week’s ECB and Fed meetings reinforce our view that government bond yields will fall further in Germany, and the rest of the euro-zone, but rise slightly in the US in 2020. 12th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK equities likely to rebound if the Conservatives win a majority We doubt that UK equities would continue to underperform in the event of a Conservative majority at the general election held on Thursday. That is because we think that the positive effects from... 11th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Election risks for sterling are skewed to the downside The continued climb in sterling this week suggests that a Conservative win in Thursday’s election is now close to fully discounted. So even a landslide victory might hardly see the pound rise. 10th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily CAD & NOK underperformance likely to end as oil rises further The jump in oil prices since OPEC+ announced a deeper-than-expected cut in production last week has done little to boost the G10 oil currencies. But we think that as oil rises further next year, the... 9th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payrolls point to Treasury yields rising a touch further With November’s employment report confirming that the US labour market is still robust, it seems increasingly likely that the Fed has finished cutting interest rates for the time being. That would be... 6th December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Indian equities likely to fare better than bonds Today’s surprise decision by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to leave interest rates on hold led to a jump in bond yields there but had limited impact on the Indian equity market. While we expect the... 5th December 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Widening trade conflicts may hurt US equities more The performance of US equities since President Trump’s latest round of tariff threats suggests that investors continue to believe that foreign firms have more to lose from trade conflicts than those... 3rd December 2019 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Higher yields unlikely in Germany, even if coalition breaks While its new leadership will probably seek to steer Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) to the left, we don’t expect a big change to the country’s fiscal policy anytime soon. So we think that the... 2nd December 2019 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lingering uncertainty limits the near-term upside for sterling Despite the growing likelihood of a Conservative majority, sterling has only edged higher in recent weeks. We think that the pound could rise further if the party win a majority, but that its stance... 28th November 2019 · 6 mins read
