Capital Daily Energy returns likely to underwhelm even if oil prices rebound While we expect energy prices to recover a long way in percentage terms, we think that returns will underwhelm, and doubt that they will exceed those from global equities by much. 20th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Behemoths now driving relentless outperformance of US equities One intriguing development in equity markets since the outbreak of coronavirus has been the S&P 500’s continued outperformance of many benchmark indices outside the US. For example, since 19th... 16th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM currency weakness unlikely to last Emerging market currencies have generally fallen back over the past couple of days as the equity market rally has stalled and oil prices have dropped. Although they may face further turbulence, we... 15th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in markets likely to keep favouring those hit hardest Across developed and emerging economies, those stock markets and currencies that had fallen the most after fears emerged about the coronavirus outbreak have generally bounced back more strongly since... 14th April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dividend futures suggest a lot of bad news is discounted in stocks We have argued that a sustained recovery in equity prices is unlikely until clear evidence emerges that coronavirus is being brought under control around the world. That still seems some way off, so... 9th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB more important than Eurogroup for E-Z bond yields The overall small market reaction to yesterday’s inconclusive Eurogroup meeting supports our view that ECB policy, rather than the outlook for public finances, will be the main driver of euro-zone... 8th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM currency rebound likely to continue As equity markets continue to rebound on hopes that the coronavirus pandemic may be peaking, emerging market currencies are also strengthening against the US dollar. Provided that the pandemic does... 7th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Signs of slowing virus spread a good omen for global equities Global equities have rallied today on tentative signs that the coronavirus pandemic is being brought under control in Europe, and positive signs in parts of the US. While it is too soon to know for... 6th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Oil deal wouldn’t alter the short-term outlook for petro-currencies We doubt that the rally in oil prices of the past couple of days will last, even if Russia and Saudi Arabia agree a deal to cut output. And while we do think that oil prices will rebound in the second... 3rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A short recession could mean US equities bounce back quickly Measures to contain the coronavirus will probably cause the one of the biggest ever reductions in output in the US. But if we are right that it will not last very long, equities may be past the worst... 2nd April 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Improving market functioning some good news amid the gloom Although both equities and safe bond yields have fallen back today after President Trump warned that the coronavirus pandemic will get worse over coming weeks, the fact that bonds have rallied in such... 1st April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities are unlikely to rebound until virus is contained globally The muted reaction in stock markets to tentative signs that the coronavirus is being brought under control in Europe suggests that equity prices will only experience a bigger recovery once this... 31st March 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Oil sector likely to lag any strong recovery in risky assets While most risky assets have bounced back over the past week, oil prices have fallen further and we doubt that they will recover anytime soon as oil producers compete to flood the market. 30th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Pandemic’s political impact may be another blow for US equities We think that the spread of the coronavirus in the US, and its impact on the economy, is likely to be pivotal for Donald Trump’s chances of re-election. 27th March 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Easing funding strains are a sign of progress The renewed weakening of the US dollar over recent days suggests that policymakers’ efforts to ease strains in short-term funding markets are having an effect. 26th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Massive policy support not likely to derail Treasuries for long We wouldn’t be surprised if the massive policy support that has been announced in the US in recent days had some adverse effect on Treasuries in the second half of 2020. After all, similar support... 25th March 2020 · 8 mins read
