Capital Daily S&P likely to rise further as economy recovers While the rally in the S&P 500 has lost some steam over the past week, history suggests that it will regain ground and some more in the coming months provided the US economy recovers. 15th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the pull-back in US equities will continue The break in the rally in US equities this week is unsurprising, given just how rapidly they had recovered. While they could fall further in the near term, we doubt US equities will revisit the lows... 14th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US-China risks significant, but unlikely to cause another rout We don’t expect that US-China tensions will escalate into a full-blown “financial war”. Nonetheless, that possibility, and the likelihood that tensions will remain high ahead of the US elections in... 13th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of negative Fed funds futures Although the rates implied by some federal funds futures contracts maturing next year have recently fallen below zero, they may not be very accurate reflections of investors’ expectations for the rate... 11th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite legal risks, we still expect Italian bond yields to fall Political and legal uncertainty means that investors may continue to discount a small, but non-negligible, probability of a break-up of the euro-zone. Nonetheless, we remain of the view that the ECB... 7th May 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in the S&P 500 might have further to go A lot has been made of the divergence between the S&P 500 which is up a bit today, and the dire incoming economic data, like the latest ADP payrolls survey. The contrast between the two has led to... 6th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Battling virus also key to outlook for EMEA & LatAm equities Although MSCI’s indices of emerging market (EM) equities in EMEA and Latin America have recovered some ground since 23rd March, the bigger picture is that they have underperformed equities elsewhere... 5th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions unlikely to hold equities back for long Global equities have fallen back in recent days and could come under more pressure in the near-term if tensions between the US and China continue to rise. However, the latest flare-up between them... 4th May 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily EM equities may soon start outperforming again Although equities have fallen back a bit over the past couple of days, April was one of the best months in years, if not decades, for many stock markets. One feature of the rally has been the... 1st May 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Awful economic data need not stop equities from rising further Although equity markets have fallen back a little today, the contrast between their rapid rebound in recent weeks and the dismal news on the state of the global economy remains stark. While we think... 30th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Euro likely to recover if the ECB does more for Italian bonds We think that today’s small rise in the euro could be a sign of things to come, assuming that the ECB acts to contain Italian bond spreads. 29th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Spotlight on US mega-caps as earnings season gets into full swing Earnings announcements due this week from the five largest listed companies in the US merit particularly close attention given how well their share prices have performed in relative terms over the... 28th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone redenomination risk a renewed concern After yet another inconclusive European summit there are signs that investors’ concerns about the solidity of the monetary union continue to linger, despite the ECB’s extensive support. 24th April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields unlikely to rise much anytime soon US Treasury yields have continued to edge down recently despite the ongoing rally in equity markets, and we doubt that they will rise much any time soon either. 23rd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lower oil prices unlikely to hold most equity markets back While the plunge in oil prices may have played some part in yesterday’s equity market sell-off, we doubt that oil will have that big of a bearing on most developed world equity indices over the coming... 22nd April 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily ECB still likely to drive BTP-Bund spread back down this year While the widening of the spread between the yields of 10-year Italian BTPs and German Bunds has raised doubts about the ECB’s ability and/or willingness to do “whatever it takes” to prevent borrowing... 21st April 2020 · 6 mins read
