Capital Daily Policymakers’ actions may boost the euro further this year Failure by EU leaders to approve the Recovery Fund this weekend would probably weigh on the euro in the near term, but we still think that policymakers will eventually reach an agreement and provide... 16th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily OBR’s debt warnings unlikely to derail Gilts Yesterday’s warning from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) that the government’s UK debt/GDP ratio could balloon to more than 500% during the next fifty years in a “downside” scenario has... 15th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Q2 earnings season to corroborate varied performance of sectors The Q2 earnings season in the US, which kicks off this week, will shed more light on how companies in different sectors of the stock market have been adversely affected by the spread of coronavirus... 13th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect further big gains for the renminbi Although they have fallen back a little today, over the past week Chinese equity markets have surged and the renminbi has appreciated against the US dollar. While both those trends may continue for a... 10th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think that sterling has further to climb Despite the UK government’s refusal to request an extension to the Brexit transition period before the 30th June deadline, sterling has fared well in July so far. This seems to be mostly due to... 9th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Ongoing policy support may spur further gains in risky assets We think that there is scope for spreads of investment-grade corporate bonds and euro-zone peripheral government bonds to decline further against the backdrop of a gradually recovering global economy... 8th July 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in TIPS yields unlikely to be reversed any time soon The yield of 10-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) has now fallen to around the same level that it was in the spring of 2013, shortly before it surged. Nonetheless, we think that... 7th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Employment rebound points to further rally in US equities Today’s far-better-than-expected US non-farm payrolls has helped push the S&P 500 up by another 1%. And so long as the US economy continues to recover and the recent spike in coronavirus cases there... 2nd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Chance of Democratic landslide increases risk to US equities The rising odds of a Democratic landslide in November’s US election could become an increasingly important factor for US equities in the second half of the year. 1st July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rise in virus cases unlikely to cause renewed market panic Even if the number of new coronavirus cases in the US continues to rise, we don’t expect to see a re-run of the financial market panic that took place in March. 30th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Surging case numbers may threaten US equities’ outperformance The sectoral composition of the US stock market helped it to hold up better than its European counterpart as the coronavirus spread around the world earlier in the year. But the more recent trend of... 29th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Resurgence in COVID-19 cases a key risk to our S&P 500 forecast Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in due course is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 being small and localised. That assumption is being challenged by a resurgence in... 25th June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Improving business expectations suggest Dax may rise further The sharp rebound in the Ifo business expectations index in June supports our view that the Dax 30 will gain further ground in the reminder of this year. 24th June 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US election could weigh on equities in the second half of 2020 While we have been sceptical of the argument that shifts in the perceived likelihood of different outcomes in the upcoming US elections have been a major driver of US equity markets this year, that... 22nd June 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in the euro has further to run While the euro has already benefited significantly from a step-up in policymakers’ efforts to avoid another debt crisis, we think that there is scope for it to rise further this year. 19th June 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Returns from gilts likely to be paltry even if policy remains loose Gilt yields have risen slightly today, but we doubt that they will climb much further, given we expect the Bank of England to keep policy ultra-loose for many years. However, since we also doubt the... 18th June 2020 · 7 mins read
