Capital Daily Fiscal impasse points to political risks for US equities The failure of US legislators to agree a new fiscal support package to tackle the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic has so far not made much of a dent in equity markets. But it highlights... 14th August 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the S&P 500’s rebound While the continued strength of the S&P 500, which at the time of writing is within a whisker of a new all-time high, is remarkable, we don’t think it necessarily reflects excessive optimism among... 13th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that higher real yields are about to undermine equities Growing optimism that the coronavirus can be brought under control appears to explain why this week has seen both a rise in real yields and healthy gains in some equity markets. We expect most equity... 12th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lira risks remain to the downside While a limited policy response may create some breathing space, risks to the Turkish lira remain significant and we would not be surprised if it fell further over the coming weeks. 11th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US-China tensions likely to weigh on HK equities and renminbi We think that rising US-China tensions will cause equities in Hong Kong, which are down by close to 1% today, and the renminbi to end 2020 slightly weaker than their current levels. 10th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 underpinned by improving labour market Today’s US Employment Report suggests that the recovery in the economy remains firmly intact despite the recent pick-up in coronavirus cases. This bolsters our view that the US stock market will not... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Prospects for monetary policy suggest upside for cable is limited Although a significant decline in the gap between the real yields of US TIPS and UK index-linked Gilts appears to have contributed to the sizeable rise in dollar/sterling (cable) since the end of June... 6th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower safe real yields could be a fillip to risky assets Although we did not expect Treasuries to come under fire after US equities turned a corner in March, we have revised down our previous end-2020, 2021 and 2022 forecasts for the 10-year yield to 0.5%... 5th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the dollar is at risk of losing reserve status While we think there is scope for the US dollar to weaken further, suggestions that its role as the world’s key reserve currency is in question are well wide of the mark in our view. 4th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Examining the outlook for key equity indices in the euro-zone We suspect that MSCI’s index of German equities will stop outperforming its indices of equities in other major euro-zone countries in the coming months, even if the economy holds up better in Germany... 31st July 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that Fed policy will keep Treasury yields well anchored Despite signs the economic recovery in the US is slowing we expect the FOMC to shy away from making any major policy changes when its meeting concludes later on Wednesday. But we would not rule out a... 29th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in “safe” government bonds may soon run out of steam It is hard to envisage much more of a rally in many “safe”, long-dated, government bonds, given policymakers’ reluctance to cut interest rates below, or in some cases further below, zero. 28th July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sell-off points to potential shifting pattern in US equity markets While we continue to think that equities will make some further headway over the rest of the year, the sectors that have fared the best this year may underperform in the coming months. 24th July 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Lira stability unlikely to last Despite the Turkish lira’s remarkable stability over the past few weeks, and the central bank of Turkey’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold, we continue to think that it will lose further... 23rd July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery Fund adds to positive outlook for E-Z periphery bonds Investors have welcomed EU leaders’ deal on a joint Recovery Fund, which strengthens our view that euro-zone peripheral government bond spreads will remain low. 21st July 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily EM currencies vulnerable, but we think they will rebound further As equity markets have struggled to make further headway over the past month, the rally in emerging market (EM) currencies has also stalled. But we think that both will resume eventually, provided... 17th July 2020 · 7 mins read
