Capital Daily US corporate bonds may continue to shrug off sub-par economy We suspect that US corporate bond spreads will fall further, even if defaults increase as the economy remains under par. 15th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Suga, Abe and the outlook for the yen While Japan’s incoming Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, may push for further monetary easing and a weaker yen, we think that, if anything, the risks to the yen lie to the upside. 14th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at Europe’s recent equity outperformance vs. US The recent pull-back of MSCI’s USA Index of US mid-and large-cap equities has been accompanied by some unwinding of its relentless outperformance of MSCI’s Europe Index of their European counterparts... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We forecast the euro and BTPs to gain a bit more ground While their rallies have stalled recently, we think that both the euro and Italian government bonds (BTPs) will gain some more ground over the coming year. 10th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of recent moves in currency markets While the recent loss in appetite for risk and plunge in oil prices appear to explain some of the recent moves in currency markets, we do not think that they tell the full story. 9th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar stability may prove temporary While the US dollar has stabilised recently, we think that the risks to the greenback remain to the downside. 8th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the equity market sell-off The sharp falls in US equities over the past couple of days have drawn comparisons both to the much larger, pandemic-induced stock market rout earlier this year, and – because tech stocks suffered... 4th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the underperformance of UK equities Despite a partial reversal today, MSCI’s UK Index has dramatically underperformed its equity indices for other major developed markets in recent months, falling as the latter have risen in local... 2nd September 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Putting real yield shifts into context when considering the dollar Last week’s change in the Fed’s inflation-targeting regime has pushed the dollar down to its lowest level in more than two years. Nonetheless, we do not expect the greenback to fall by as much as it... 1st September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Fed’s new policy framework likely to keep yields low The new policy framework set out in Fed Chairman Powell’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium yesterday points to even looser monetary policy for even longer. In our view, that... 28th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the euro will rally much further this year The recent resurgence of coronavirus cases in the euro-zone is probably one reason that the euro‘s rally against the US dollar has stalled. Although our baseline assumption is that the virus will... 27th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the underperformance of energy stocks We suspect that some of the recent poor performance of energy stocks will unwind in the short-term if, as we forecast, oil prices grind higher. Nonetheless, we think the longer-term outlook for the... 26th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for dividend payments is not as gloomy as it was Although dividend payments have fallen during coronavirus, that does not mean that the outlook for stock markets is poor. On the contrary, a decline in dividends has often been followed by a surge in... 24th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What the DNC might signal for US equities In our view, US equities would do a bit better over the next few years if Donald Trump wins re-election than under Joe Biden. However, the tone of this week’s Democratic National Convention (DNC)... 21st August 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily The coronavirus crisis six months on Today marks six months since the coronavirus crisis started to weigh heavily on global markets. Although the S&P 500 is now back where it was on 19th February, many sectors of the US market, equities... 19th August 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Fading uncertainty could give risky assets a further boost Investors have come to expect less volatility in the S&P 500 as the index has recovered to within a whisker of its all-time high. Nonetheless, they are still anticipating considerably more volatility... 18th August 2020 · 4 mins read
