Capital Daily Spotlight on US equities as Q3 earnings season kicks off While the S&P 500 is now ~5% above its pre-pandemic level, we don’t think that this reflects excessive optimism among investors. One way to see this is to take a close look at analysts’ expectations... 14th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for US inflation compensation Although the US inflation data released earlier today did not generate much of a reaction, we still suspect that market-based measures of inflation expectations will rise further in the coming months... 13th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How post-election fiscal stimulus might affect US equities Investors’ recent fixation on the US election and the effect it might have on the shape of future fiscal stimulus suggests that markets would react positively to a Democratic clean sweep. But whilst... 9th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think strength in emerging Asian currencies may continue EM Asia currencies have weathered all the uncertainty about the US elections reasonably well recently, and we suspect they will appreciate further against the dollar in the coming quarters... 8th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that the Fed will let Treasury yields rise further If the recent rise in the 10-year US Treasury yield continues, how the Federal Reserve responds may have some key implications for many markets. 6th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US stock market’s latest performance The resilience of the US stock market since Donald Trump revealed he had COVID-19 suggests investors are not worried for now about the implications for the economy. While this is presumably mainly... 5th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Politics the focus for now, but not key to the outlook for S&P 500 The negative reaction in equity markets to the news that President Trump has tested positive for coronavirus is no surprise, given the potential implications for November’s election. But it is worth... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Equities in EMEA and LatAm may claw back some lost ground We think that equities in EMEA and Latin America will claw back a bit of the ground they have lost relative to those in Emerging Asia recently, if progress is made in containing COVID-19 and the... 1st October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of US election uncertainty While last night’s US presidential debate had limited impact on financial markets, investors continue to worry about the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming election. 30th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect further monetary easing to reduce yields much Some further monetary easing already appears to be priced into money markets in many developed economies, and while we expect additional stimulus measures, we don’t think that this would necessarily... 28th September 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think China’s bond yields will defy gravity forever On its own, the inclusion of China’s government bonds in another key benchmark index is unlikely to make a great deal of difference to financial markets. But there are other good reasons to suspect... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt rate hike will prevent further falls in the Turkish lira While the Turkish lira has rallied today following the central bank’s surprise decision to raise its policy rate, we think that it will fall back before long unless the central bank follows up today’s... 24th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Real rate differentials will continue to weigh on the $ in our view We doubt that the recent pull-back in US inflation expectations will continue. This feeds into our view that the dollar is more likely to weaken than to strengthen over the next few years. 23rd September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Economy probably more important than politics for US equities Despite the perceived risk of a disputed US election, we think that the US stock market will recover from its recent wobble, and go on to make further gains, as the economy gradually recovers, aided... 21st September 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Second waves and the risks to equity markets Our forecast that equity prices will make renewed headway in the next year or so is predicated on fresh outbreaks of COVID-19 remaining fairly localised. That assumption is being challenged by a... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect UK monetary policy to keep Gilt yields low Gilt yields have declined following today’s MPC meeting and we expect them to remain low for the foreseeable future even if the Bank of England doesn’t cut its policy rate below zero. 17th September 2020 · 7 mins read
