Capital Daily Why this stock market rotation may not end in tears A stock market rotation coincided with a broad-based slump in the stock market after the dot com bubble burst. Nonetheless, we do not expect that to be the case this time around. 10th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in risky assets may have further to run Most “risky” assets have rallied sharply since the US election last week, and today’s news about progress towards a vaccine for COVID-19 has given them a further boost. While it is hard to judge just... 9th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US politics may take a back seat before long As results from key battleground states continue to trickle in, markets appear to have settled on the prospect of a Biden presidency – albeit one that will struggle to command the support of Congress... 6th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Prospect of more gridlock may reduce US political risks While Tuesday’ US election proved much closer than polls had predicted, the impact on financial markets thus far has been limited compared to the volatility that followed the surprise 2016 result. Of... 4th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What the US elections may mean for the dollar Unlike after the US elections in 2016, we do not envisage a renewed surge in the US dollar ahead of year-end after the US elections in 2020. 3rd November 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sizing up the post-election risks to US Treasuries Treasury yields may rise further if the Democrats secure a “clean sweep” on Tuesday, but we still think that the chances of a very large sustained move, on the scale of the one that followed the last... 2nd November 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Peripheral bond spreads may continue to narrow despite turmoil The ECB’s announcement today that it will consider further easing in December was widely expected, given the worsening economic outlook in the euro-zone. We expect ECB policy to continue to suppress... 29th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More short-term pain for EZ equities, but 2021 could be brighter With President Macron set to announce more restrictions to activity this evening and Chancellor Merkel due to hold negotiations with regional governments to do the same, it is not surprising that... 28th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A closer look at some of the recent trends in the US stock market We would not be surprised to see more bouts of weakness in the US stock market like the one at the start of this week with further fiscal support not imminent and the coronavirus continuing to spread... 27th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling lira likely to remain an outlier in our view The Turkish lira’s latest drop against the US dollar is unlikely to mark the end of its downward trend, in our view. But we think the outlook for most other emerging market (EM) currencies is more... 26th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to rise much further The fact that last night’s US Presidential debate didn’t appear to reduce the chances of a Democratic clean sweep at the upcoming US election, and the optimistic comments on the fiscal negotiations by... 23rd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Several factors suggest resilience of US tech sector may not last The US equity market appears to have so far shrugged off a wave of poor news for the tech sector. We think that this reflects renewed coronavirus worries, which have supported tech stocks relative to... 21st October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Safe havens providing scant shelter The past week has delivered further evidence that “safe” assets now provide less of a hedge against moves in equities than they have done previously. We think that this reflects changes in how... 20th October 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We forecast that the 10-year Bund yield will end 2020 at -0.50% We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German Government (Bund) yield will end this year at -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed surge in COVID... 19th October 2020 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think fundamentals favour further RMB appreciation In our view, the near-record gap between government bond yields in the US and China is one reason to think that the climb in the renminbi against the US dollar has further to run. 16th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt rally in Australian government bonds will unwind soon We are not surprised by the big rally in Australian government bonds today and expect the 10-year yield to settle around its current level as the RBA ups its purchases. 15th October 2020 · 7 mins read
