Capital Daily We think US dollar upside remains limited by loose Fed policy Although it has strengthened over the past few days, we expect the US dollar will continue to weaken gradually this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and risk appetite stays strong while the... 12th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect Chinese equities to continue to underperform Chinese equities have underperformed those in other emerging markets since the vaccine news in November, and we expect this to continue in 2021. 11th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The economy, monetary policy and the S&P 500’s valuation We doubt that the valuation of the S&P 500 will prevent it from making further gains over the next few years. After all, big falls in its valuation usually have their roots in either a weakening US... 8th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think risky asset prices will rise further Risky asset prices have continued to march higher lately, despite some alarming news. But we don’t think the market is in a state of excessive optimism, and suspect risky assets could continue to... 7th January 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the recent rise in Treasury yields will continue We continue to forecast that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end this year and next at 1%, even though it has crept above that level as the Democrats look set to take control of Congress. 6th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily COVID-19, US political uncertainty & Georgia on our mind While we expect that the coronavirus pandemic will continue to be the dominant driver of financial markets over the next few months, uncertainty around US politics may return to play an important role... 5th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily UK stock market shrugs off near-term economic pain The particularly strong performance of equities in the UK today may seem at odds with the rapid rise in coronavirus cases there and the likelihood of further restrictions on activity. But provided... 4th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily New virus strain and the outlook for risky assets and the dollar The imposition of tighter restrictions on activity in the UK following the rapid growth of a new and faster-spreading strand of coronavirus and the subsequent decision by many countries to halt travel... 21st December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making the case for EM EMEA and Latin American equities We expect equities in EM EMEA and Latin America to claw back some more of the ground that they lost this year relative to stock markets elsewhere, as some fundamental factors linked to the spread of... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Currency “manipulators” and the outlook for the dollar Regardless of the eventual consequences of the US Treasury’s decision yesterday to label Switzerland and Vietnam currency manipulators, we think that there are good reasons why the US dollar will... 17th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Fed to keep long-term yields low Regardless of how exactly the Fed tweaks the details of its asset purchases at its FOMC meeting today, we ultimately expect it to ensure that long-term bond yields remain low for at least the next... 16th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Aussie will appreciate further next year The Australian dollar has been one of best performing currencies over recent week. We think that it will continue to appreciate against the US dollar over the next couple of years, but that its rise... 14th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily One last cliff-hanger for sterling? With the currency markets jittery as the clock winds down on the UK-EU Brexit negotiations, it is worth assessing the risk of another major fall in the pound. 11th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily PEPP recalibration suggests E-Z peripheral yields may fall further The policy changes announced today by the ECB confirm that the central bank will continue to underpin the sovereign bond market for some time yet and support our view that euro-zone peripheral... 10th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Comparing the outlook for equities in Latam and EM Asia We think that the dramatic outperformance recently of equities in Latin America in general versus their peers in EM Asia has much further to run, as the world recovers from COVID-19. 9th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in the renminbi may have further to go The renminbi’s continued appreciation since good news about vaccines began to emerge a month or so ago might seem strange, since it was one of the best performers during the early stages of the... 8th December 2020 · 6 mins read
