Capital Daily Yields may resume their climb, despite central bank guidance We do not think that dovish guidance from developed market (DM) central banks about the near-term outlook for policy rates is a barrier to longer-term bond yields rising in markets where the economic... 27th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Renewed rise in Treasury yields may weigh on EM currencies We suspect emerging market (EM) currencies will generally fare poorly this year as long-dated Treasury yields resume their rise. 26th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Biden’s CGT plans another reason stocks may trail economy Joe Biden’s plans to raise the rate of federal tax on long-term capital gains for wealthy individuals is another policy proposal that might cause the stock market to fare worse than the economy in the... 23rd April 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think that euro-zone yields will continue to rise gradually The ECB’s monetary policy decision and press conference today supports our view that the yields of 10-year euro-zone government bonds will rise gradually over the coming years as economic conditions... 22nd April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the 10-year BTP-Bund spread to widen further Even though the spread of 10-year Italian BTPs over German Bunds has widened recently, we don’t expect this to continue and wouldn’t be surprised if it narrowed again before long. 20th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Continued policy divergence likely to support the US dollar Although the US Treasury’s biannual report on the “Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners” refrained from explicitly naming any country a “currency manipulator”, it... 19th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Diverging China-US economic outlooks may weigh on renminbi With the growth trajectories of China and the US likely to continue to diverge as the year goes on, we doubt the renminbi’s recent rebound against the US dollar will continue. 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect CBRT rate cuts and further falls in the lira While Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) kept the one-week repo rate at 19.00% at its first meeting under governor Sahap Kavcioglu, we still think that the central bank will cut its policy rate before long... 15th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Expectations for earnings consistent with rotation resuming soon Although the stock market rotation trade has stalled recently, we think that it will resume before long. 14th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think higher yields will slow the stock market’s rally The recent surge in the S&P 500, to within striking distance of our long-standing end-2021 forecast of 4,200, has coincided with long-dated Treasury yields stabilising after their sharp rise earlier... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three reasons we think the euro will weaken further this year Although the euro has recovered some ground against the US dollar this month, we still expect it to weaken further against the greenback later this year. 12th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the stock market rotation to resume before long The recent decline in long-term government bond yields has coincided with a slight reversal of the stock market rotation, but we think that both developments will prove short-lived. 9th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Falling VIX doesn’t have to herald a correction in US equities There may be growing concerns that a correction in the S&P 500 lies around the corner, because the expected volatility of the index has fallen to a pre-pandemic low. This would presumably be because... 8th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily India’s monetary policy, bond yields and the rupee We think investors are still overestimating the chances of a significant tightening of Indian monetary policy, and that this will help keep a lid on the country’s long-term bond yields and put some... 7th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Higher corporate taxes creeping up the agenda While any changes to the US tax code may not materialise for many months yet, it seems increasingly clear that the Biden administration intends to pursue its campaign trail pledge to raise corporate... 6th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Growing evidence of a sustained increase in US inflation A continuation of expansionary fiscal policy and today’s ISM figures out of the US support our view that core inflation there will exceed the Fed’s expectations over the next few years. 1st April 2021 · 6 mins read
