Capital Daily Stock market wobble probably not a sign of things to come We doubt that the recent weakness in global equities is the start of a larger rout and think the market will recover before long. 20th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the (slightly) mixed messages in markets In recent weeks, it has often looked as though equity markets aren’t quite on the same page as bond and currency markets. Indeed, despite its fall today, the S&P 500 remains within touching distance... 19th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields Changes in investor positioning may help to explain some of the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields recently, as a large speculative net short position had built up in Q1. But we still think that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US Treasury yields likely to drive DM bond yields higher We continue to expect that a continued global economic recovery and high US inflation will cause US Treasury yields to rise and push long-term government bond yields in most other developed markets. 14th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect high US inflation to weigh on Treasuries While the Treasury market shrugged off another stronger-than-expected CPI print today, we continue to expect the US 10-year Treasury yield to rise over the next few years, as high inflation proves... 13th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s RRR cut & the outlook for markets The surprise decision on Friday by the PBOC to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for China’s banks suggests to us that there will be further downward pressure on government bond yields in China... 12th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think the sell-off in risky assets will continue While we think that the stellar performance of many “risky assets” over the past year will not be replicated over the next few, we also doubt today’s generalised sell-off will continue. We are... 8th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily On the fading of reflation and rotation While we doubt that the “reflation” and “rotation” trades are entirely dead, they may have now largely run their course. 7th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily This may be as good as it gets for the Aussie and Kiwi Although the RBA’s hawkish message today and further strong data out of New Zealand sent the Aussie and Kiwi higher, we are becoming less confident in our existing, bullish forecasts for both... 6th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the mixed signals behind US dollar strength The US dollar has strengthened against most currencies, despite the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries. We think that the greenback will appreciate further, aided by a rise in long-term... 1st July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Stress tests, the financial sector and bond yields We think the positive results from the Federal Reserve’s stress tests remove an obstacle to higher bond yields, while reinforcing the positive outlook for the financial sector. 29th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risks to our positive view of E-Z peripheral bonds While the risk that political events cause an increase in euro-zone “peripheral spreads” has arguably diminished recently, a withdrawal of ECB support has become more of a concern. On balance though... 28th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Banxico & the prospects for high carry EM currencies Banxico’s surprise interest rate hike highlights the growing pressure on many emerging market central banks from the combination of rising inflation and the Fed’s shift towards policy normalisation... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily BoE policy may ultimately lead to a steeper UK yield curve The yield of 10-year Gilts fell after the Bank of England kept its policy settings and forward guidance unchanged at its meeting today. However, we suspect that if the Bank continues to look through... 24th June 2021 · 6 mins read
