Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z yields likely to rise only gradually despite PEPP recalibration The ECB announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases today, but both its forward guidance and its updated economic projections still suggest that the Bank will keep monetary policy very... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US stock market’s relative valuation? The high valuations of US equities relative to those elsewhere are, in our view, another reason to think they will lag their peers in the rest of the world over the coming years. What next for the ECB... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Despite RBA tapering, we expect a weaker Australian dollar Despite today’s decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to taper its asset purchases, we think the Australian dollar will weaken against the US dollar over the remainder of the year. 7th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the summer doldrums While the past two weeks have seen a rebound in most risky assets, the summer months overall have been characterised by a relatively defensive tone across most financial markets. In our view, three... 6th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Post-payrolls jump in Treasury yields likely to continue While the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield following the surprisingly weak August non-farm payrolls report is somewhat counterintuitive, we still expect bond yields to rise further. 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily OPEC+, oil prices and two implications for financial markets Although yesterday’s decision by OPEC+ to stick to its planned output increases didn’t cause a big reaction in global financial markets, we still expect the price of oil to decline over the next... 2nd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the S&P 500’s soaring valuation The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of its all-time high, despite faltering a bit today. Although much of its gain since spring 2020 has reflected growth in earnings, its valuation has also risen... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Jackson Hole, tapering, and the risk of higher Treasury yields We doubt that a hint at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium that the Fed may soon wind down its bond purchases would spark a sell-off in US Treasuries as dramatic as 2013’s “taper tantrum”. However, we... 25th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies will be short-lived, and that most will fall further against the US dollar this year. 24th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The latest stock market sell-off and the rotation trade We think the sectoral rotation trade will be a key feature of stock markets as economies continue to recover, resulting in the US market generally trailing those elsewhere. 23rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the US dollar overvalued? The recent gains in the US dollar have left it somewhat above its “fair” value on most metrics we track, but we doubt this will prevent it from rising over the next 6-12 months. 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risk to Treasuries from tapering The muted reaction in the Treasury market following the release of the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting may seem surprising given the revelation that most participants thought it could be... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily COVID remains a key risk for the Kiwi The RBNZ’s decision to delay raising interest rates highlights how the spread of COVID-19, and governments’ responses to it, has returned as a key driver in financial markets over the past couple of... 18th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
