Capital Daily We expect EM LC government bond yields to grind higher Emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bond yields have risen this year, on average, by as much as during the “Taper Tantrum” in 2013. We expect EM LC government bond yields to, in... 7th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US debt ceiling debacle? The longer the current political spat over the US debt ceiling drags on, the more likely it becomes that the resulting uncertainty puts some pressure on “risky” assets. Somewhat counterintuitively... 5th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese equities may underperform even if Evergrande fears fade Even if concerns about potential spill-overs to China’s financial system from troubles at Evergrande fade, we still expect Chinese equities to underperform equities elsewhere over the next two years. 4th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends from Q3 that we expect to continue We think that three recent market trends – underwhelming stock market performance, rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar – are likely to continue. 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Even if the US dollar falls back a bit further in the near term, we expect it to resume its recent rally in due course. 30th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Supply shortages, monetary policy and stock/bond correlations Although we expect bond yields to rise further, we don’t think that would necessarily coincide with the sort of sharp falls in equity prices we saw earlier this week. 29th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily The German election & the outlook for E-Z bonds & the euro We think that regardless of which coalition ends up governing Germany in the aftermath of the general election, there won’t be a big shift in fiscal policy or Germany’s attitude towards European... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the sell-off in Gilts is over We expect the 10-year Gilt yield to continue to rise over the next few years, but at a much slower pace than recently. 24th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The divergence between the FOMC and financial markets Judging by the reaction in bond markets to yesterday’s Fed announcement, investors are sceptical the central bank will have to hike rates by as much as it is signalling it will. But if, as we expect... 23rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on the FOMC meeting and Treasuries We doubt that the Fed will spring a surprise today with its communications on tapering or by revising the timing of lift-off in its interest rate projections. But there is considerable uncertainty... 22nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year. 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on Evergrande and its implications Further bad news out of China about troubled property developer Evergrande over the weekend has led to a continuation of last week’s risk-off shift across financial markets today. We think three... 20th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s financial markets, Evergrande, and global spill-overs Although we doubt the current slowdown in China’s economy will reignite 2015-style “hard-landing” fears that weigh heavily on risky assets generally, we are anticipating some negative spill-overs... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of inflation and bond yields in the UK and US The renewed rise in consumer price inflation in the UK reported today contrasts with the dip in the US announced yesterday. Admittedly, the former has risen from a low level, while the latter has... 15th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s politics and financial markets Despite investors’ hopes for a potential renewal of Abenomics-style policy in Japan, we suspect the yen will continue to hold its ground much better than after Abe was elected in 2012. 13th September 2021 · 5 mins read
