Capital Daily We think emerging market currencies will generally fall from here Although emerging market currencies have held up surprisingly well so far this year amid the volatility in global equity markets, we think they will weaken in general against the US dollar before too... 26th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the fundamental backdrop for gold remains negative Despite its surprising resilience over the past few weeks, we still think the price of gold will fall to $1,600/oz. by the end of 2022. 25th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the relative risks from big tech to broad equity indices US “big tech” hasn’t been spared in 2022’s stock market rout, which has gathered quite a lot more momentum today. Its prior outperformance of the rest of the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 was, however... 24th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the stock market sell-off Although we think that there may be some further rotation away from “growth” stocks over the next few years, as Treasury yields rise, we doubt the S&P 500 will have an awful year. 21st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think the Turkish lira’s stability will prove short-lived For the first time in several months, the lira remained subdued following an interest rate announcement from Turkey’s central bank, perhaps as the decision to keep rates on hold was widely anticipated... 20th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the sell-off in E-Z government bonds has further to run While the yield of 10-year Bunds has risen a long way recently, and is now above zero for the first time since before the onset of the pandemic, we think it will increase further still. We also expect... 19th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily China’s property sector, monetary policy, and exchange rate With China’s property sector – and economy more broadly – struggling, we think more PBOC rate cuts are on the way this year, which we expect to result in further falls in the country’s government bond... 18th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily More thoughts on developments under the hood of the NASDAQ Although the prices of a growing number of shares in the NASDAQ 100 have been floundering recently, we are still not convinced that this heralds an imminent collapse in the index. 17th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt that EM equities will continue to outperform While emerging market (EM) equities have performed better than developed market (DM) equities so far this year, we don’t think that this pattern is likely to continue. 14th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar drop is at odds with increasingly hawkish Fed The US dollar has started the year on the backfoot and there are several factors that may weigh on it further in the near term. But we think that the Fed’s increasingly rapid shift towards a tighter... 13th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher Despite its slight drop over the past few days, we still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further by the end of 2022. 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rotation may lead to further US stock market underperformance We expect sector rotation to lead to an underperformance of mid- and large-cap equities in the US relative to those in the rest of the developed world in 2022, in contrast to most of the period since... 11th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yields to support further USD strength before long Although the recent surge in US government bond yields has made little impact on the US dollar, which has been broadly flat over the past month or so, we still think that widening yield differentials... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the post-payrolls sell-off in Treasuries will continue Even though investors appear to have raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes following the latest US employment report, we think they may still be underestimating how far the federal funds rate... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Rising yields and high valuations may limit gains in US stocks Although we do not think that US equities will continue to fall sharply, we nonetheless forecast that their gains over the next couple of years will fall well short of those in 2021. 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect higher US yields to lead to more weakness in the yen The Japanese yen fell to a 5-year low against the US dollar earlier this week, following a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. While the yen has rebounded slightly since then, we think that further... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
