Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of changing 10-year UST inflation compensation While US 10-year inflation compensation has dropped back today in the wake of a pull-back in the price of oil, the bigger picture is that it had previously surged this week to its highest level this... 9th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the implications of a joint EU fiscal response to the war We doubt that news that the EU may fund increases in energy and defence spending on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war through joint debt issuance will mark a turnaround for the euro and euro-zone... 8th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Oil-supply disruptions pose a threat to the US stock market History suggests that large disruptions to oil supply, which a proposed ban on imports of Russia’s oil would probably represent, could weigh heavily on the US stock market. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST... 7th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily War concerns may not sustain the rally in US Treasuries The February US employment report released earlier today serves as a reminder of the current strength of the US economy and, in our view, keeps the Fed’s policy tightening plans on track. So, although... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Commodity prices, monetary policy expectations, & FX markets So far, the war in Ukraine has had relatively little impact on FX markets. But the knock-on effects from commodity prices and monetary policy suggest to us that the downside risks for European... 3rd March 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets look nervous, but not panicked (yet) A few cracks have begun to emerge in global financial markets which, until recently, seemed to be taking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine broadly in their stride. 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Path to sustained rally in DM government bonds is narrow While the war in Ukraine has finally triggered a big drop in developed market sovereign bond yields today, we think the likely inflationary impact of the war limits the scope for a sustained rally in... 1st March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the equity market’s resilience so far Aside from Russia, most major global financial markets have, perhaps surprisingly, taken the invasion of Ukraine largely in their stride. Given the huge uncertainty around the conflict and the... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Russia-Ukraine and the market fallout: the story so far After a volatile 48 hours in financial markets, this Capital Daily highlights the key lessons from the market fallout since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A few points are worth stressing, in... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets in the fog of war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. While the war is still in its early stages, there are a few observations worth making on the impact on financial markets... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil prices, inflation compensation & Treasuries Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think Treasury yields will resume their rise even if oil prices fall back. 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Ukraine conflict, monetary tightening, and financial markets While continued escalation of tensions in Ukraine would very probably put more pressure on “risky” assets in the near term, their fate further down the line might depend on how central banks responded... 22nd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The rally in gold may reverse We doubt that the rise in the price of gold in 2022 so far will be sustained. While a lot hinges on how geopolitical tensions play out, our forecast is that it will drop back to $1,600 per ounce by... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to resume their rise While sovereign spreads in the euro-zone “periphery” have fallen back recently, we suspect that they will start rising again before long. 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
