Capital Daily Falling inflation may add further fuel to bond rally More evidence that inflation is falling back in most economies has pushed government bond yields down across developed markets (DMs) over the past couple of weeks. We think that disappointing growth... 19th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Market optimism may have gone too far All is well in the US economy – at least according to financial markets. But we think investors are underestimating the chance of an economic slowdown. 18th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China: no country for old (or young) equity bulls? With yet more disappointing news about China’s economic rebound, it is worth taking stock of the headwinds facing the country’s equity market. We think Chinese equities will hold up better than other... 17th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are other markets right to ignore oil’s rally? Equity, bond, and FX investors seem to have shrugged off the recent rise in oil prices. We wouldn’t be surprised if that continued even if prices rose further. 14th July 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Investors are getting the yen right for the wrong reasons Renewed murmurs of additional tweaks to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy are giving further impetus to the yen’s recent rally. Though we forecast the yen to strengthen... 13th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Different inflation pictures, different bond market outcomes? Bigger falls in US core inflation than in the euro-zone or UK might mean government bond yields decline a bit more quickly in the US over the rest of this year, but ultimately we expect yields to fall... 12th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Is the AI-fuelled stock market rally already over? Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence (AI) seems to have waned a bit recently, and it may continue to do so if, as we expect, growth struggles later this year. But we think that it will resume... 11th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two intriguing developments within the latest rout in bonds There were two intriguing developments in bond markets last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4% to its highest level since March. The first was a similar-sized increase in the 10-year... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Labour market data send markets there and back again Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily UK recession may stem gilt market bleeding We still think a recession is on the way in the UK, and that it will bring gilt yields back down. 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equity valuations may eventually get more stretched The valuations of equities are, in general, still a long way from being unprecedently high compared to those of government bonds. 5th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renminbi intervention China has stepped up its support of the renminbi, which has rebounded over the past couple of days. This may well prove a turning point for the currency. Three key points are worth emphasising. 4th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may become a headwind for US equities US stock markets’ gains in recent months, both in absolute terms and relative to their European peers, owe a lot to their rising valuations. But equities in the US are now arguably quite highly valued... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily FX intervention is in the air (again): will it work? The Riksbank’s curious communication choices around its foreign exchange reserves earlier today highlight both the challenges depreciating currencies pose to policymakers and the particular... 29th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
