Capital Daily

Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar

We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar.

5th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble

The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market...

4th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Are bond markets in India & China getting interesting?

Recent developments have brought the global spotlight onto sovereign bonds in India and China. We expect the former to fare the best of the two.

3rd July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Yen still poised for a large rebound when Fed eases

Despite the continued depreciation of the yen so far this year, we still expect it to rebound against the greenback supported by its relatively low valuation and the start of the easing cycle in the...

2nd July 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

French election first-round relief rally might not last

Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to...

1st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump

Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

A tale of two tech bubbles & why we doubt this one will pop soon

The last US tech bubble inflated in a different way to this one. A comparison of the two leads us to conclude that this bubble will continue to inflate, despite the recent wobble in Nvidia’s share...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

A few thoughts on the yen’s latest woes

Although it’s showed little signs of it lately, we still expect the yen to rebound against the dollar.

26th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The end of the beginning for the AI bubble?

Nvidia has entered correction territory, but we doubt this will mark the beginning of the end of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI). Instead, this might usher in a new phase of a bubble we...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course

Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here.

24th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro

Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

We still expect a broad-based fall in DM bond yields

Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with...

20th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

How long can the US stock market stand on one leg?

The US stock market has hit another fresh all-time high, with its ascent is an increasingly lonely one driven by a handful of its constituents. That pattern may be difficult to sustain indefinitely...

19th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing

Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we...

18th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

The best things might still not come in small packages

We expect the renewed underperformance of small-cap equities vis-à-vis larger ones, which is now near its most extreme in two decades in the US, to continue there over the next year or so. That’s...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read