Capital Daily Higher for (only a bit) longer? Despite today’s rebound, the general fall in Treasury yields over the past week against a backdrop of mixed economic data suggests investors could be starting to come round to our view that price... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Relative outlook for US and EZ high yield spreads We expect the gap between high yield (HY) credit spreads in the euro-zone and the US to narrow over the rest of this year as spreads in both economies climb. 29th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Jackson Hole: what a difference a year makes Market participants have taken Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference today as somewhat hawkish, even if the fallout, so far, is some way from the violent... 25th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Will valuations hinder AI-related stocks’ performance? Stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings from Nvidia have extended this week’s relief rally in stock markets. While we think that US equities could falter over the rest of the year as growth disappoints, we... 24th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Downturns to push the euro and sterling down further The weaker-than-expected PMI data from European economies is consistent with our view that the euro and sterling will fall further against the dollar over the next couple of months. 23rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in 10-year JGB yield no surprise given global trend Although the 10-year JGB yield has gradually been creeping up towards the new 1% ceiling tolerated by the BoJ, this is no surprise given a broad-based rise in 10-year sovereign yields elsewhere... 22nd August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect global credit spreads to rise by year end We think global credit spreads will rise further by end-2023 in the face of disappointing growth. 21st August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Still far from an unsustainable US stock market valuation Although the US stock market has started to come under pressure from rising Treasury yields, the valuation of equities relative to government bonds is still a long way from being as stretched as it... 18th August 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed looks to be done… so why aren’t Treasury yields? The continued rise in Treasury yields, following what may well have been the Fed’s final interest rate hike last month, contrasts with the experience of recent tightening cycles. But we still expect... 17th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mixed disinflation paths, but US and UK yields may both fall Although disinflation in the UK is lagging that in the US, we expect yields in both places to fall this year. And we think that Gilt yields are set to fall by a bit more than Treasury yields through... 16th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The market implications of China’s economic struggles The difficulties facing China’s economy and financial system continue to dominate much of the headlines. So far, the gloom has not made a major dent in the optimism reflected in global markets... 15th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What Country Garden wilting means for China’s equities We don’t think the ongoing troubles in China’s property sector mark the beginnings of a financial crisis, but do expect them to be a drag on returns from the country’s stock market over time. 14th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Troubled times continue for the yen and the renminbi With more poor economic data out of China and US yields again threatening to push towards new highs, it is little wonder that the yen and the renminbi have come under renewed pressure. While we still... 11th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Falling US inflation may continue to benefit “safe” assets We think disinflationary pressures will help the Fed pivot to rate cuts sooner than investors expect, giving a boost to “safe” assets this year and next. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
