Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Ueda makes yen intervention more likely With the Bank of Japan offering little new at its policy meeting earlier today and US Treasury yields surging higher in the wake of the FOMC’s hawkish message earlier in the week, pressure on the yen... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt hawkish rhetoric will stop yields from falling Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, we still expect most long-dated government bond yields in developed markets to fall over the next couple of years. 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil likely to remain a sideshow for financial markets The recent rally in oil prices has had only a limited impact on bond and equity markets so far. And we doubt that this will change anytime soon, given our view that the rally will not last much longer... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily On the dwindling influence of TIPS on other assets The latest increase in the 10-year TIPS yield, to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~2% at one point last week, has barely caused a ripple in the markets. More generally, the influence of “safe”... 18th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equities may be ready to outperform the US We expect China’s equities to fare better than those in the US in the near term. 15th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EZ assets may underperform amid “higher for longer” We think that the ECB is more likely than the Fed to keep rates “higher for longer”, even as the euro-zone heads for a recession. That is one reason why we expect core euro-zone bond yields to fall by... 14th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What further disinflation may mean for US equities Although today’s August CPI report was broadly in line with expectations, it provided further evidence that underlying inflation in the US is coming down even as the economy there weathers the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields and sterling set to fall in the coming months Our view on UK inflation vis-à-vis the US suggests that bond yields are set to fall back by more in the former, adding downward pressure on sterling. 12th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily PBOC & BoJ to markets: You shall not pass? Another step up in the Chinese and Japanese authorities’ efforts to prop up their faltering currencies has given the renminbi and the yen a bit of a boost today. Alone, these measures are unlikely to... 11th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A look at what’s been driving up the 10Y Treasury yield Although upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield has abated a bit, the big picture is that it has risen by ~80bp on net in the past four months. While some of this rise has reflected a... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM bonds may underperform despite early easing cycles Emerging market (EM) easing cycles are underway in earnest even as the first Fed cut remains a while away. We think this easing will help to drive EM local-currency (LC) government bond yields lower... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Weighing up the prospects for DM bond yields The worsening economic growth backdrop suggests to us that interest rate expectations for cyclically sensitive developed market (DM) economies are too high. We expect them to fall and drag bond yields... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s equities may step down from the spotlight soon We doubt the strong gains in Japan’s equity market this year mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag the US market over the next couple of... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another false dawn for China’s markets? New measures to support China’s struggling property sector seem to have sparked some renewed optimism in the country’s financial markets. We think there are three points to note. 4th September 2023 · 4 mins read
