Capital Daily We doubt oil prices will impact the Treasury rally Oil prices have seemingly had little spillover to other financial markets over recent months, and we don’t think anything from the latest OPEC+ meeting is likely to prevent a further rally in US... 30th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may fall by less than Treasury yields next year While we think both yields will fall next year, we expect a smaller drop in the yield of 10-year Bunds than in that of 10-year Treasuries. 29th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Relief rally in Swedish krona a sign of things to come? Given how far below “fair value” the Swedish krona appears to us, we suspect that its decade-long fall may be coming to an end. 28th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why US equities may continue to outshine corporate bonds Although pull-backs in credit spreads and in the yields of Treasuries have contributed to a strong performance from US corporate bonds in November, they have underperformed US equities regardless so... 27th November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Yield curves may normalise next year as rate cuts begin We think that yield curves across Europe and the US will “disinvert” next year, as central banks shift towards easing monetary policy. 24th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Economics to keep trumping politics in EZ markets While the Freedom Party’s victory in the Dutch parliamentary election was a big surprise, there is in our view only a very small probability that it will have a substantial impact on financial markets... 23rd November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Has the AI tailwind for equity markets run out of puff? We think investor enthusiasm about AI could yet boost equity prices further. 22nd November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the yen and renminbi will extend their gains The fall in US Treasury yields has driven rebounds in the yen and renminbi against the US dollar, and we expect this trend to continue through at least the next year or so. 21st November 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Early thoughts on Mileinomics & market implications Victory for maverick Javier Milei in Argentina’s presidential election means the country is about to embark on yet another economic experiment. While it is hard to say what that will bring for its... 20th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling yields don’t guarantee ‘growth’ outperformance ‘Growth’ stocks have held up well vis-à-vis ‘value’ stocks this year despite the surge in real yields. But relatively optimistic earnings expectations for growth stocks may prevent them from steaming... 17th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The prospects for the “China risk premium” A thawing in China/US tensions could, in our view, help “risky” assets in China for a while by reducing the “China risk premium” that seems to have emerged. But we doubt it would fully reverse the... 16th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks and the Three Bull Markets Investors seem to be banking on a “Goldilocks” US economic environment which, if sustained, might lead to bull markets for most bonds, equities, and currencies. But we think this is a bit optimistic. 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US sovereign risk; markets vs Moody’s Moody’s decision to revise down its outlook for the US sovereign credit rating may add to the growing sense that market participants are becoming more worried about the fiscal outlook in the US. So... 13th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the greenback? While the US dollar has bounced back a bit this week, its struggles over the past month or so are in some ways similar to the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year. But we think a comparable... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
