Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are the bears finally coming for the Goldilocks trade? We think “risky” assets could struggle relative to “safe” ones in the near term if, as we expect, growth disappoints, although we still think they’ll outperform over next year as a whole. Note: The... 21st December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Growth” may keep outperforming “value” next year While the valuation gap between “growth” and “value” factors in the US is high by past standards, we suspect that “growth” will generally keep outperforming in the next year or two. 20th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoJ normalisation may lift JGB yields & bolster the yen We expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to rise next year, as the era of negative interest rates there comes to an end and constraints on the bond market ease. And we think the yield gap... 19th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of investors’ interest rate expectations Fed officials have pushed back a bit against market bets for rate cuts today, helping to send yields a bit higher. But the bigger picture is that there has been a massive reassessment of the timing... 18th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are China’s equities finally about to stage a comeback? We think China’s equities could outperform those elsewhere in the near term, but suspect their longer-run outlook is fairly bleak. 15th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Mission Accomplished? While central banks remain reluctant to declare victory over inflation just yet, bond markets appear more than happy to do so on their behalf. With most of the policy rate cuts which we forecast over... 14th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Even lower rate expectations may fuel the Treasury rally Investors have revised down their expectations for the Fed funds rate a long way in recent weeks. But we think that shift will continue in the coming months, pushing Treasury yields down further. 13th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still see scope for further falls in bond yields While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to... 12th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Goldilocks” markets may eventually benefit gold too While the gold price has retreated over the past week or so, we think it is set for a renewed rally next year as the Fed cuts interest rates and long-term real yields fall back further. 11th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Yields in the US and Japan may diverge The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything keep the US dollar down for good? We expect the US dollar’s resilience to fade over the next year or so, and forecast it to weaken against most major currencies. 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Still time for the S&P 500 to party like it’s 1999 Despite how far it has come this year, we think the S&P 500 can make further big gains over the next couple of years. 1st December 2023 · 5 mins read
