Capital Daily Do the best things now come in small packages? Falling short-dated Treasury yields seem to have sparked a rotation within the US stock market in recent weeks. But we doubt this rotation will persist, given our view that Treasury yields will not... 27th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Markets and the latest threat to Fed independence Despite the muted reaction to the latest developments, Trump’s efforts to bend the Fed to his will are a genuine threat to US markets. 26th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the Jackson Hole euphoria in markets We doubt today’s rally in Treasuries and renewed weakness in the dollar will gather steam, despite Jerome Powell’s acknowledgement at the Jackson Hole symposium that an adjustment in the FOMC’s policy... 22nd August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Where do markets stand ahead of Jackson Hole? US interest rate expectations and the dollar are edging higher ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s much-anticipated final Jackson Hole speech tomorrow. Given the extent of policy easing still discounted in... 21st August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese government bonds’ fortunes could still turn We think Chinese government bond yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts. 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Low volatility in Treasuries isn’t necessarily a worrying sign One feature of the summer lull in markets has been a slump in ICE BofAML’s MOVE Index of expected volatility in Treasuries, to its lowest level in more than three years. But this fall doesn’t... 19th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ongoing equity rotation We don’t think the relatively unusual rotations within the US stock market are a sign that the relentless march of US equities, and especially the big tech sectors leading the way, is nearly at an end... 18th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What could end the yen’s puzzling weakness? We still think the Japanese yen will stage a sustained rally against the US dollar. 15th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Does it matter if you can’t trust the economic data? For the time being, there is little sign of either US equities or bonds being undermined by faltering trust in key economic data. But that might not last. 14th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in China’s equities may not be over yet The near-term outlook for China’s equities could be quite positive, despite the apparent headwinds. 13th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily FOMC cuts wouldn’t guarantee lower long-end yields Today’s July US CPI data came in broadly in line with consensus expectations, so have done little to shift the prevailing market narrative that the FOMC is on track to resume cutting its policy rate... 12th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why the stock market may not care if the Fed disappoints A simple argument can be made that the US stock market would falter next month if the Fed didn’t cut rates, the logic being that Treasury yields would rise and reduce the present value of firms’... 11th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will the post-payrolls calm last? After notching one of their biggest 1-day falls in recent years last Friday, Treasury yields have this week traded in a historically tight range despite no shortage of catalysts. If we’re right to... 8th August 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect the BoE to cut further and gilt yields to fall The surprisingly hawkish tone struck by the Bank of England today has increased the chances it will slow down the pace of rate cuts from one per quarter. But our view remains that Bank Rate will be... 7th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Who’s really worried about the US economy? Although there are growing concerns in some quarters about the health of the US economy, neither equity analysts nor investors seem worried. 6th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Bonds aren’t swaying growth’s relentless march over value We don’t expect the relentless march of ‘growth’ over ‘value’ in the S&P 500 to end soon, regardless of what happens to ‘risk-free’ real Treasuries. 5th August 2025 · 4 mins read
