Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s latest rebound The yen’s sharp rebound over the past couple of days may not last any longer than similar rallies in recent years. But a more proactive approach, which the Bank of Japan may now (finally) be adopting... 3rd September 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The global bond rout and the dollar Despite falling back a bit today, the dollar generally seems to have benefitted from the recent rout in bonds. Its fortunes could change eventually, though, after the bubble in AI bursts. 2nd September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily No easy fix for the bond sell-off Fiscal concerns, rising energy prices and AI-related investment have lifted long-term government bond yields across major economies to multi-decade highs. Our base case remains that these yields will... 1st September 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Flattening yield curves, CAPE nears dotcom extremes We don’t expect lasting relief for short-dated Treasuries, although we expect those in Europe to fare better over time. Meanwhile, our base case remains that the equity market has further to rise... 31st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Reassurance from Warsh gives the dollar a boost Fed Chair Warsh’s much-anticipated keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium has allayed some of the confusion caused by his post-FOMC remarks a month ago. More clarity around his approach to both... 28th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Concentrated earnings probably mean concentrated returns Although S&P 500 earnings have become even more dominated by a handful of companies, that hasn’t consistently translated into larger companies outperforming smaller ones lately. We expect big-tech... 27th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Will term premia plunge again when the AI bubble bursts? Although there are many reasons to expect recent upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury term premium to persist, they could collectively be more than outweighed for a while by a bursting of the... 26th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Private-sector issuance not yet undermining Treasuries Despite gross issuance of long-dated US corporate bonds and other private-sector bonds surging over recent months, we doubt this is the main culprit behind the rise of Treasury yields over this period... 25th August 2026 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily More bond pressure, more AI wobbles We don’t think it’s time to panic about long-dated government bonds, even though the headwinds they face are gathering strength. 24th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Term premia aren’t the only risk to Treasuries Although the main cause of weakness in long-dated Treasury bonds at the moment seems to be rising term premia, increasing ‘risk-neutral’ yields could prove just as problematic to them in the longer... 21st August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily USD: Our currency, our problem? The dollar has come under renewed pressure, in part due to a resurgent “debasement” narrative. While we continue to think such concerns are somewhat overblown, and that the economic backdrop overall... 20th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily AI explains why US equities are largely indifferent to bonds Today’s big retreat in long-dated Treasury yields, triggered by the news of a doubling of liquidity support, gave the S&P 500 a fillip after a prior slump in bonds had begun to take a toll on the... 19th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Groundhog day for bonds; what to make of the sell-off While long-term government bond yields have dropped back a little today, their recent surge suggests investors are losing patience with fiscal profligacy. But unless the sell-off intensifies, equities... 18th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury sell-off not (yet) a major worry for stock markets The renewed rise in long-term government bond yields despite generally softer US economic data and the largely unchanged situation in the Strait of Hormuz is somewhat worrying. But Treasury yields... 17th August 2026 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily New engine, same US equity outperformance Sector composition has been a headwind to the performance of the US stock market vis-à-vis the rest of the world in recent months, but a broad-based rally has helped it to outperform regardless. 14th August 2026 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recent rise in Treasury term premia no cause for alarm Despite a recent rebound in ACM’s estimate of the 10-year Treasury term premium, to within striking distance of May 2025’s more-than-decade high of ~0.9%, we doubt it will rise further. 13th August 2026 · 5 mins read
