Capital Daily What the Fed’s “risk-management” cut means for markets We think the post-FOMC rebound in long-dated Treasury yields will continue over the remainder of the easing cycle, as will the modest recovery in the US dollar. 18th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the clock ticking on China’s equity rally? We think China’s equities will make further gains. 17th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields & dollar still likely to rebound Another set of robust US activity data suggest that the US economy remains in decent shape despite the recent slowdown in employment growth. This suggests to us that the FOMC will stick to a more... 16th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equity allocation starting to flash red for the US stock market The share of equities in the financial assets of US households and nonprofit institutions serving them (NPISH) hit its highest level in at least 75 years in the second quarter of this year. That... 15th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Respite at the very long end of the yield curve may be brief We don’t think the falls in the yields of very long-dated government bonds will last much longer. 12th September 2025 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Euro rally still likely to stall While the euro has strengthened a bit against the dollar on the back of today’s ECB policy announcement and US inflation and jobs data, we continue to think that the euro is more likely to fall than... 11th September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More to the S&P 500’s strength than the prospect of easier money While the prospect of looser Fed policy has helped to drive the S&P 500 to new highs in recent months, there is another reason the index has surged. This isn’t an increase in its valuation compared to... 10th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily French bonds are up the Bayrou without a paddle The (largely expected) fall of the French government has made limited impact on euro-zone financial markets. But it represents another step in the gradual deterioration of the outlook for French... 9th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s 10-year yield may soon surpass China’s We still think the 10-year government bond yield in Japan will finish this year higher than that in China, as the former rises further and the latter resumes its downward trend. 8th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Payrolls barely dent market optimism Another weak US Employment Report has knocked risk appetite, but a lot of optimism is still baked in. While that raises the prospect of a more serious blow to markets should economic data sour, our... 5th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily In the S&P 500 we antitrust Yesterday’s rise in the S&P 500 was fuelled by the shares of two of its largest firms after a favourable antitrust ruling. Although this masked a decline in the average stock in the index, we don’t... 4th September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Why are Gilts the sick man of the bond market? While the sell-off in government bond markets has abated a bit today, the UK Gilt market continues to stand out, and not in a good way. Nonetheless, we continue to think that Gilt yields will... 3rd September 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Parsing the long-end bond sell off As long-end government bond yields continue to rise, identifying the culprit for the latest sell-off becomes ever more pressing. 2nd September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Equities and industrial commodities may continue to diverge Global equities and industrial commodities have been dancing to different tunes in recent years. We suspect that will remain the case through next year. 1st September 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How rising JGB yields could be a threat to Treasuries The rise in the yields of Japanese government bonds doesn’t seem to have diminished Japanese investors’ appetite for US Treasuries, and our base case is that will continue. But the risks are growing. 29th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How worrying would AI fatigue be for the rest of the S&P 500? We suspect the AI-fuelled rally in the S&P 500 has further to run, despite the slightly adverse reaction to Nvidia’s latest results. But even if we’re wrong, we doubt there would be much fall-out... 28th August 2025 · 4 mins read
